Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsterPatrick: Happy to share @MonmouthPoll data with @Nate_Cohn for this piece. Yes, there are reasons to feel more confident in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This would be real bad for the Texas GOP, believe it or not. It's a rare state where Dems have the advantage in translating their votes to seats, due to hugely large GOP rural advantage (wasted votes) and low turnout:pop ratio in Hispanic areas https://t.co/jLCEV8QUY3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats open up a bigger party ID edge, per Gallup. DK if it'll hold, but worth keeping in mind as we interpret other surveys https://t.co/FqGnRwZPDv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid i did not! though i didn't think of it myself; it emerged from an editor question. but a great thought — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In post-election analysis, @PollsterPatrick found that his final poll of PA in '16 (Clinton+4) would have been Trump+1 if it had been weighted by education and had a 'perfect' LV screen (only validated voters). We found the same (Trump<1 -->Trump+4) in our final NC poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, the polls could be even farther off than they were four years ago. But many of the causes of the '16 error seem less likely to repeat, like a possible late shift among undecided voters or a failure to weight by education — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Can we trust the polls? Well, even if the polls are just as far off as they were in '16, Biden still wins https://t.co/1ZVdSe0fI3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini is that really borne out? i definitely agree on the online recruited panels, but you've got nyt/siena moving an average of 7 pts since nov. monmouth is putting out +13 in PA w rbs. the pew panel was an 8 pt shift since march. is this really any different than the rdd picture? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Either way, Arizona, as of now, seems to have swung *less* swing toward Biden since '16 than the US as a whole, after seeming like the opposite for so long. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, AZ is COVID groundzero at the moment, and one might have thought that would have opened up some new opportunities for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can conjure up a few reasons: Biden was already riding really high there; not as much room to grow. His gains have been among young whites, underrepresented in AZ. A more diverse electorate should be less elastic, and many polls show Biden weakness with Hispanic voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At this point, there's quite a bit of evidence that Biden's margin in Arizona hasn't really grown the same way it has nationwide or in the other battlegrounds. You could even make a case it's tightened since Spring https://t.co/Wo3BqhGlnh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: NEWS - Trump shaking up campaign. Bill Stepien to become manager, Parscale to stay on as senior adviser for digital and data… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+11 in the NBC/WSJ poll, 51 40 https://t.co/v1ikbthuuZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbview meant to have AK on there — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

the coronavirus is not terribly responsive to postmodern politics https://t.co/fQsPJyxI11 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

as in '08 (and this is the same senate class in '08), have to believe that either Kentucky or GA special break Dem hearts even in their wildest dreams — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

lol if it's 15 we'll probably be wondering whether Dems have any hope of 60 with AZ/CO/IA/ME/NC/MT/TX/KS/GA/AL/SC/KY/GAs https://t.co/b3VamXRbs3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@al_morales too many, i assume? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac has oddly been showing showing extremely low levels of Hispanic support for Biden all year. FWIW, our polling showed Biden with typical levels of Hispanic support (but also winning among white col+ by 30) https://t.co/eQ40egBvvA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SusquehannaPR what did you learn from your pennsylvania polling in '18? https://t.co/VQwBkemdAE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads by 15 points nationwide, 52 to 37 percent in the Quinnipiac poll. It's Biden's largest lead in a national survey since he secured the nomination https://t.co/4Uv6RPXKLG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @ethansmith01 wonder what they learned from their pennsylvania polling in '18, which was among the worst in the whole country (and truly horrible)? https://t.co/OuqTZbiGea — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK, depending on what's happening in the north, it could just as easily be the world where the GOP position in the tipping point states compared to the popular growth is at its zenith https://t.co/qAvQHFfofF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And since the Monmouth poll is probably the most comparable poll out there to the NYT/Siena poll, here's how they stack up under the hood https://t.co/zVANspnCTW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And no, that doesn't mean you can unskew the poll to be better for Biden, either! Our poll was D+3 PID and Trump+1 recalled vote, yet it was worse for Biden. Both surveys were weighted by party registration, which reduces the effect of weighting on another partisan measure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not that you should judge polls this way, but surely the poll unskewers will be disappointed to learn that this sample is even by Party ID and Trump+5 on recalled vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden leads by 10 or 7 points in high or low turnout LV models (should note that we didn't find an LV/RV gap, and there can be some noise here, esp at this fairly small sample size) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden still rolling with a 13 point lead in Pennsylvania, 53-40, among RVs in new Monmouth poll. https://t.co/FUA7EiBhTP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They're weighting by education now and it makes a big difference. By our estimates, it moves '16 state polls by about 4 points toward the GOP and was a big factor in the error. I'd guess Patrick found the same thing in his own polls, and made the flip https://t.co/M6I3ifxyoG — PolitiTweet.org