Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini is that really borne out? i definitely agree on the online recruited panels, but you've got nyt/siena moving an average of 7 pts since nov. monmouth is putting out +13 in PA w rbs. the pew panel was an 8 pt shift since march. is this really any different than the rdd picture? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, the polls could be even farther off than they were four years ago. But many of the causes of the '16 error seem less likely to repeat, like a possible late shift among undecided voters or a failure to weight by education — PolitiTweet.org