Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 7, 2021

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Thu Jul 16 12:56:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In post-election analysis, @PollsterPatrick found that his final poll of PA in '16 (Clinton+4) would have been Trump+1 if it had been weighted by education and had a 'perfect' LV screen (only validated voters). We found the same (Trump<1 -->Trump+4) in our final NC poll — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, the polls could be even farther off than they were four years ago. But many of the causes of the '16 error seem less likely to repeat, like a possible late shift among undecided voters or a failure to weight by education — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@otis_reid i did not! though i didn't think of it myself; it emerged from an editor question. but a great thought — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 16, 2020 Hibernated