Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By Biden 13 in Florida, per Quinnipiac, so go add that to your average I guess https://t.co/bHx0phiFLm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden+2, somewhat to my surprise, and better than the statewide aggregates for OH/IA/TX/GA https://t.co/AV69CdJhRS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This fun but essentially irrelevant question led me to go through the motions of estimating how Biden would do in each district if he won in the fashion described by live interview polls right now. One CD is x+9.33 and one is x+9.47. I suppose it doesn't matter which is which — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If, hypothetically, the election were held today and the live interview polls were right, and it was like Biden+10, which district is closer: — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i think that gap drops even lower since then. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @QuinnipiacPoll: Tim Malloy to discuss results of Florida poll regarding #Coronavirus #SchoolReopening #RonDeSantis job approval 2020 p… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict https://t.co/Cfwz039fkT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I guess I should update this article soon, but this article from early last month offers the direct comparison https://t.co/Cfwz039fkT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden's seeming weakness with no college whites, for instance, is basically just a product of some weird oddities with the CCES that lead to a likely overestimate of Clinton's support. Any other benchmark, and certainly an apples-to-apples one, would show Biden gains — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Direct comparisons are really important, since results by subgroup are pretty sensitive to methodological choices and mode. That's especially true with post-election surveys that have been adjusted to match results, which creates additional interacting effects — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With an apples-to-apples comparison, Biden's strength among white voters appears much broader, spanning basically all categories. It's not about seniors or college-educated white surging his way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I usually agree with @Redistrict but I will respectfully, though strongly disagree with using the CCES as the basis for demographic comparison with live interview surveys, and it has some serious analytical consequences https://t.co/EUBYJw2GoA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I usually agree with Wasserman but I will respectfully, though strongly disagree with using the CCES as the basis for demographic comparison with live interview surveys, and it has some serious analytical consequences https://t.co/EUBYJw2GoA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: Trump’s description of a cognitive test is mesmerizing https://t.co/Gx4o9HNaXR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden by 1 in Texas, 45 to 44 percent, per Quinnipiac https://t.co/yIHeNDRL8m — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can't rule it out: until last month, their 'white college' category included AAs. But it doesn't explain why Biden's so weak among Hispanic voters, and his weakness means including white Hispanics wouldn't move white voters a lot, anyway https://t.co/54kNfr5RE4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, this hasn't stopped Quinnipiac from producing some extremely friendly results for Biden, including a Biden +15 last week nationwide. For that to work out, they showed Biden up 6 among white voters--just 4 points beneath his 10 point lead among Hispanic voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As we wait for this Quinnipiac TX poll, one interesting thing I'll flag about their polling over the last few months is that they've tended to show Biden with far less support among Hispanic voters than other surveys. Will be interesting to see if that shows up here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MarkLandler: NEW: Trump asked the US ambassador to the UK, Woody Johnson, to see if the British government would steer the British Open… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PollsAndVotes Someone’s jealous of that low MoE I see — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mmurraypolitics did you release a result among voters over age 65? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

otoh i think the latter only goes to 1896, which may or may not be what you want — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

i think standing at armegeddon has a little bit more of an on-the-ground feel to it that keeps it politically relevant, while 'the republic* for which it stands' may be the more comprehensive and sweeping history? https://t.co/bsOz16wMMC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

and i'd encourage anyone interested to pick up 'standing at armegeddon' or 'the republican for which it stands,' my two favorite general histories of the period — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

there's a fine argument that the post-reconstruction elections are more like American politics today than any other period https://t.co/YTt94i8erO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden has built a larger lead than any candidate in 24 years, since Clinton '96. Since then, most big leads have faded. Is Biden's lead different? https://t.co/yRynLa4UPE https://t.co/M4vv4P8p4R — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RandyLudlow: Former Ohio Gov. @JohnKasich expected to speak for @JoeBiden at Democratic National Convention https://t.co/yFzLdwBFnI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: The man in this Portland video is Christopher David. A Navy veteran, he tells us he went to the protests for the first ti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DanEggenWPost: Two charts tell the tale: https://t.co/YVNnherZ9I — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris @BrendanNyhan @ben_golub uncertainty in model specification is different. if it's 96% without polarization, 99% with, and you're 'not sure' whether the last 3 months raise an issue for your polarization term, then i think we can take the under on 99 — PolitiTweet.org