Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr like, that's just not what that word means, either as a matter of literal english or in terms of the forecasts you're comparing yourself to. instead, it looks like a convenient way to misconstrue your ratings to fit the result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr i don't really see how you can expect me to believe that? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr if that's wrong, i would like to understand why. but that's what this table implies to me https://t.co/foHKZrR70B — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr fundamentally: i think these ratings imply democrats to win 60 seats, and were plainly biased toward dems--after all, they went 1/18 in your tossups https://t.co/AUqLkIKIJM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr yes you definitely predicted the dems would flip lots and lots of seats. my point is that your early forecasts appears to show the democrats flipping *far more* seats than you actually claim, and indeed then you even show in your post-election table — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr and on the page you're clearly comparing yourself to the other forecasters, on their terms. i just don't see how i can interpret it to mean something totally different https://t.co/j3omGgvLOL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr i don't doubt that your forecast was 42 on the night of the election. i don't understand how i can reasonably interpret your forecast as such at the outset, unless you want to show contemporaneous evidence that tossup didn't mean tossup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr the start of this thread is you saying Trump+9 in KY is 'predicted' by your Trump+30 model. the merit of your work, whatever it might have been, is totally obscured when you construe your 'theory' to mean anything--even something ludicrous like tossup doesn't mean tossup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr the start of this thread is you saying Biden+15 in KY is 'predicted' by your trump+30 estimate. the merit of your work, whatever it might have been, is totally obscured when you construe your 'theory' to mean anything--even something ludicrous like tossup doesn't mean tossup — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr in all seriousness though, do you have a contemporaneous statement, like at the time of the forecast, that 'tossup' didn't mean the normal version of tossup? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr and it certainly doesn't seem that's how you think about.. any other of your race ratings. i think the facts here are clear enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr i haven't seen your explanation before, but if you're coding races differently, and construing 'toss up' as "GOP expected to go 17-1" then I'm not going to take your tossup declarations to mean very much! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr so, you don't want to offer an estimate of how many seats this means the dems have gained? https://t.co/1Lk0LfE69t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr you have pointed this out, before and now? i don't have a problem with criticism, though I do disagree with your view here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr i think you can understand why i can't take your ratings the same way as the others https://t.co/1Lk0LfE69t — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr are you really saying that if those poll results were the results of the election, that you would claim they were consistent with your model? i'll go back to my initial question then: what results, other than a Trump win, *wouldn't* you construe as consistent with your model? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr Anyway, if I wanted to 'discredit' you that's what we'd be talking about. As it is, you're tweeting *at me,* claiming to predict results that are facially inconsistent with your "model." If you'd like to show why you would have predicted those results, go ahead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @cfbarry486 @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr ok, how should I characterize a forecast that rates GOP-held seats as follows: 45 'will flip' to Dems 18 toss up 14 lean rep 12 likely rep I'd say that's about Dem+60. What about you? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cfbarry486 @RachelBitecofer @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr lol they're in the screenshot; you're welcome to replicate the google search, click the link, and ctrl-f "set in stone" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cfbarry486 @RachelBitecofer @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr those aren't titles. those are quotes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@cfbarry486 @RachelBitecofer @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr https://t.co/8lcQUp9sq3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer @NiskanenCenter @ElectionWsphr lolll cmon. you can't say the election is set in stone, yet close enough to be decided by the VP, with a model showing Trump up in AZ, and then proclaim you predict nutso poll results. is there ANY Biden-ahead result you wouldn't construe as consistent with your "model/theory" ? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What do I make of this kind of stuff? Well, this is a pollster that had Biden+15 nationally and Biden+12/13/whatever in FL. This is the same picture. That's not the picture in other polls, but it is a strike against significant tightening https://t.co/ISwLN4Tksn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Diane, here's something we haven't seen before: a 77-19 lead for Biden among white 4-year college grads in Maine. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Diane, here's something we haven't seen before: a 77-19 lead for Biden among 4-year college grads in Maine. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump+1 in ME-2 (in the crosstabs h/t @ForecasterEnten) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Quinnipiac polls: ME: Biden+15, Gideon+4 KY: Trump+9, McConnell+5 SC: Trump+5, Graham/Harrison tied https://t.co/8cQuLeSpt3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Kyle_MacLachlan: #2020 (Inspired by @ReeseW) https://t.co/G1TnYBQall — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RachelBitecofer to be clear, *you* were attacking someone else for being subjective and i was pointing out that your ratings are quite subjective. i don't mind if someone wants to rate races without resort to a formal model — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, many better online polls still show no movement. YouGov, Ipsos and Morning Consult are still at ~9, like in June. Most movement is from outright weak IVR stuff. So it may also be that the live polls come back with Biden+10 again. I don't think that's ruled out either — PolitiTweet.org