Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@B_M_Finnigan @SeanTrende for sure, though the one night i actually slept in WY i slept in a walmart parking lot in a town with an ongoing rodeo and it was really, really bright — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende (also bc i wasn't going to make it to laramie without starving) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende i got mcdonalds there once just bc clinton won it twice — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Bencjacobs i got mcdonalds in green river once — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @LtabCapital @Ejmiller25 @DouglasLukasik idk, they've done plenty of telephone polling in recent years. and while i don't mind experimentation, i do have a problem with trotting out a 70% col sample that's been rake weighted on like four demographic variables and pretending we should care about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kabir_here @lennybronner @Wertwhile clear enough — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kabir_here @lennybronner err 4* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes @kabir_here @lennybronner add a WA-3 and 5 control / exclude WA-3 and 5 while you're at it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @vest_team: It's finally here! 🥳 A national precinct map! Explore the 2020 presidential election here https://t.co/4SHaGs8b4U — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@aaronstrauss @LtabCapital @Ejmiller25 @DouglasLukasik i think it's embarrassing. data quality matters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @otis_reid: @jon_m_rob Must be 79% college unweighted, which probably tells you a lot about the poll — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, in fairness to the reporters in Jackson: I'm just jealous https://t.co/bRUoPLSwmE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's kind of amusing to see everyone camped out in Jackson Hole for the Wyoming primary tonight. It's as they say: as goes Jackson Hole, so goes... maybe a couple of other precincts in Laramie — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi idk, to be clear. the other numbers don't seem as odd. but it might! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NickRiccardi pretty unusual design here that may not be reflective of the typical poll (emailing a list of registered voters) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @charlie_savage: NYT lawyer @davidmccraw reminds me of this line from a 2018 2nd Circuit opinion in a FOIA lawsuit the NYT lost. We cont… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende WA-08, obviously. i think it's a perfectly good answer, but i'll also toss out CO-08 to avoid any appearance of bias — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes OTOH, i think the answer on the second is pretty plainly 'no'--at least if we're framing this in terms of whether we think the House is a tossup. But 538 doesn't really think that either--the 538 forecast is R+4 on the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes i think the answer on the first is pretty plainly 'yes' at this point, and it's not just the special elections. the generic ballot polls show more-or-less the same thing, caveats about recent polling errors and LV/RV issues aside. the horse race polls show the same thing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes there are two separate framings worth considering --is the balance of post-dobbs evidence showing a neutral environment? --is that evidence sufficient to move us off of a fairly strong prior for a GOP year? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini @NateSilver538 bring back the nowcast — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SJonNantucket i don't think there's a lot to look at tbh. most of it is partisan. and i don't think it's a very clear story, with nonpartisan polls showing a more-or-less tied national vote (and gop polling showing a wave). https://t.co/l7Qs1vOdDJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@conorsen it's a noteworthy caveat, given the acute signs of weakness for Democrats among these groups in national polls (and that they're also more conservative on cultural issues than white Democrats) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All of these primary/special election-based indicators are hard to interpret with tremendous confidence. I don't read too much into any one of them. But taken together, there fare far fewer signs of the highly favorable GOP environment we saw/expected earlier this cycle — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Washington top-two primary is another data-point in this category, but a more plainly healthy one for Democrats IMO. The result is much worse for Democrats than '18 and much better for them than '10/14. It's a lot like 16/20, which would keep Dems in the game for the House — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The turnout in primary elections is sort of in the middle. It's remained a decent indicator for the GOP, with GOP primary turnout up significantly over '18. But Dem turnout has stayed strong and it's not exactly 10/14, either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are still some good data points for the GOP. Biden's approval rating is one of them. It's entirely consistent with a 'wave' election. It's not hard to explain why Democrats would be defying gravity right now, but gravity is a pretty stubborn force — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats have also trended upward on the generic congressional ballot, where they've reached parity with the GOP No way to know if it lasts until November, but the focus on abortion/Jan 6 hasn't ebbed--yet. At the same time, the news on inflation has improved for Ds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There haven't been many other special/non-primary election results since Dobbs, but MN-01 isn't exactly alone. NE-01 was also a strong showing for Democrats. There's also the KS abortion referendum, if you count it. We'll get more data, including NY-19, over the next few weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The GOP holds MN-1 in last night's special election, but only by a modest 4 point margin (Trump+10 district; R+3 in last House race) The signs of a Democratic rebound post-Dobbs are starting to pile up https://t.co/9XJZGnxPqT — PolitiTweet.org