Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 14, 2022

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Fri Aug 12 18:36:08 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes i think the answer on the first is pretty plainly 'yes' at this point, and it's not just the special elections. the generic ballot polls show more-or-less the same thing, caveats about recent polling errors and LV/RV issues aside. the horse race polls show the same thing — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes there are two separate framings worth considering --is the balance of post-dobbs evidence showing a neutral environment? --is that evidence sufficient to move us off of a fairly strong prior for a GOP year? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pollhannes OTOH, i think the answer on the second is pretty plainly 'no'--at least if we're framing this in terms of whether we think the House is a tossup. But 538 doesn't really think that either--the 538 forecast is R+4 on the popular vote — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2022