Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No right interpretation. The norm is two-year separately but the literal interpretation combines them. And the huge postgrad number makes either interpretation possible (if there were *way* more colgrads than postgrad, then clearly two year included, right?) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notice that these options don't actually correspond to the what the interviewer says. The interviewer asks for the highest level of education, and the interviewer then codes it in the right spot. Have they been instructed to code a two-year degree as 'some col' or a college grad? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Before we reweight, one initial question is how to make sense of their education question. In particular, should we include people with a two-year degree in our 'college grad' category. https://t.co/tk8fZgJOLc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Interestingly, they posted the microdata for this poll, so that let's us dive in, see what's going on, and reweight. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the plus side, they did release their microdata set which allows us to dive in and give it a proper reweight. If you take their weights for age/race/sex/region and add our education weight, the margin goes from Biden+13 to Biden+6, 50 to 44 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unbelievably, the Battleground poll--sponsored by Georgetown University and conducted by two fairly well known partisan pollsters--is not weighted by education and comes in at ... 63 percent with a college degree. Holy cow. https://t.co/51oCnLACvc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Ad_Analytics: .@JoeBiden is prebooking in Texas. So far we've seen $647k placed in the Lone Star State. It's mix of 30s and 60s ads tha… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: This story is honestly so much fun it's worth reading a second time https://t.co/QZMbQUZ8Lh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You know, any clarity we get on the state of the race next week will be short lived. We'll get the VP, two conventions, a long Labor Day weekend, and we probably won't settle back into a both clear and stable understanding of the race until... 9/13 or so? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: @Nate_Cohn Live interview polls over the last few months in the same states show the shift in the Great Lakes to be mo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: As @nate_cohn was pointing out, the CBS/YouGov polls really do show a uniform swing. All but AZ showed a shift of 7 po… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as I said last week, I find it totally plausible! I'm just saying it is different. And thanks to their battlegr… https://t.co/IGNUPmXNwL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But you know, 1 or 2 points of clear house effect in the tipping point is material. Here, we have a 3 pt EC-PV gap… https://t.co/nNHHapx3r4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I mean, I don't want to exaggerate: we're talking about 1-2 points, on either or both of the Sun Belt v. Rust Belt… https://t.co/wfJSkLebF9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Not going to repeat this thread every week, so here's what I noted last week https://t.co/eTrsIkeTzF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This continues a fairly clear set of regional house effects for YouGov, with relative Biden strength in some Sun Be… https://t.co/Gnj2NKW2FF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @myhlee: NEW: Their mail was not delivered for days. Now these Minneapolis residents are worried about their votes counting. From me + @… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@joemcginnissjr @KamalaHarris @AmbassadorRice i think the left, regardless of race, would be furious at the selecti… https://t.co/Hl4GMHcChC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@joemcginnissjr @KamalaHarris @AmbassadorRice no, i'm saying the backlash would primarily be from the left, not tha… https://t.co/23be1SyJ5a — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that's a bit too clever to really be the campaign calculation, and a gamble would generally violate 'do no… https://t.co/Teo90QSEdk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Flipping this around for a second, a friend makes a clever case that the backlash winds up helping Biden by highlig… https://t.co/8gRd82u5fj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ForecasterEnten: On TV, not everything is as it appears to be... https://t.co/JJIAR4aOlh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Surely even those who would be very, very disappointed by a white moderate can see the case: from a critical swing state, reinforces your central coronavirus critique of Trump, plausibly 'sympatico' w Biden, and, yes, she does have some charisma https://t.co/mb8KBjCr2J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though if Whitmer is *not* the pick, then elevating her at this stage may actually have that exact effect, and make the eventual nominee more palatable to many of the Dem activists who might have been disappointed by Whitmer — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Whitmer has always made a lot of sense; she would have been my guess for not-Harris in May. But if she was a top-tier option, then Biden camp erred in allowing veepstakes coverage to develop in a way that makes Whitmer a let down to many Dem activists https://t.co/pjxyqMOM75 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A great Pew look at changes in individual-level change in partisanship since '18, using their panel data https://t.co/W9G6t3LUTl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@pkerseydw 'handling it' means down-weighting early voting democrats in our polls, so that would be a poor interpretation — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the past, we'd just clock in the 'early voters' as 100% likely to vote and slowly degrade the turnout probability of those who didn't vote early to match an overall turnout estimate. I'm not sure that'll fly if absentee voting is super lopsided. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll handle the latter just fine. The former is tougher and it's something I'll need to think about. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IRL, the issue isn't underestimating Republican turnout. The real issue is that the Dems who don't vote early are less likely to vote than Republicans who don't, but they'll probably all tell you'll they'll vote. Alternately, you have too many Dem early voters — PolitiTweet.org