Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IRL, the issue isn't underestimating Republican turnout. The real issue is that the Dems who don't vote early are less likely to vote than Republicans who don't, but they'll probably all tell you'll they'll vote. Alternately, you have too many Dem early voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the past, we'd just clock in the 'early voters' as 100% likely to vote and slowly degrade the turnout probability of those who didn't vote early to match an overall turnout estimate. I'm not sure that'll fly if absentee voting is super lopsided. — PolitiTweet.org