Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

you heard it here first https://t.co/a6FcBScj4W — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BCAppelbaum read it! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Everyone goes to the Roman Empire for decadent, decaying great powers, but I wish I've read more about late-18th/early 19th century China. Opioid crisis, elite failure, closed world view, anti-establishment cults, etc. https://t.co/mw4ohzauzb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @NWSWPC: 🌀🌀 The latest forecast from @NHC_Atlantic depicts 2 hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time on Tuesday. There are onl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And thinking ahead, this speech was particularly tough on the main arguments the RNC seems poised to advance next week: that Biden is senile, and a stealth candidate for radicals. It's a bit harder to make that case after a forceful--dare I say, high energy--pitch for unity — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The balloons were missing, but that's about it. Convention 'bounces' are usually ephemeral, but Biden had some upside on his favorability rating and that's what I'll be watching. A sustained increase in Biden fav will do him more good than a short-term gain in the head-to-head — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

They've been right on message through :20 tonight. But take Obama: whether you rate that speech a 10/10 or a 1/10, the headline coming out of it was definitely not about some touching story about Biden. It was Trump as a threat to democracy https://t.co/s5dE7RxOp7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As we head into the last primetime hour, I'll posit that this convention--whatever its merits--has not been nearly as focused on improving Biden image as I would have guessed https://t.co/GCuWAVTiHv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MollyBeck: BREAKING: Wisconsin Elections Commission votes 5-1 to reject Kanye West's nominating petitions, keeping him off the Wisconsi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pew Research has a nice resource for state pollsters here. If you're well above these figures you're just not in the ballpark https://t.co/3rjnSrCqiq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A modest number of state pollsters, unfortunately, believe they're weighting by education when they weight to the 2016 exit polls, which weren't weighted by education. There is no difference between what they're doing and not weighting by education https://t.co/a4dptzvIJP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it's 55% with a college degree in New Hampshire, then there's very little question that this same sample would have been better for Trump if it had been weighted properly. This is the kind of reason the polls were wrong last time https://t.co/DJNDeg7dpQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It looks like a typo to me, given that it makes no sense, doesn't add to 100, and that their other polls have made sense fwiw https://t.co/4Ma0sspiTV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A couple of swing state polls today: Muhlenburg College with Biden+4 in PA; St. Anslem with Biden+8 in NH, but that's not weighted by education so knock that down a few notches. Better for Trump than the average in both cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Data quality has a big role in shaping our interpretation here: we can easily quantify the downside risks with mail voting. We don't have similarly clear data on downside risks of in-person voting, or on the upsides of mail. That doesn't mean they don't exist — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It is all but certain that Biden will fare worse compared to a world where *every mail ballot is accepted,* or whatever. I don't think that's useless information. But I'm not sure just how useful it is without understanding the alternatives, which are harder to evaluate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have to be really clear about our baseline here: lose .6 compared to what? There's never been an election where every provisional ballot is accepted, where everyone gets to their polling place by the poll closing time, etc. https://t.co/5IaIhSHgwz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @davidshor: @jon_m_rob *whispers* "73% of 18-34 year olds who didn't vote in 2016 identify as moderate or conservative" — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well now that he's aged out of the 18-21 year old bracket, he's not being heavily upweighted anymore even if he's still there! https://t.co/GS8fFUpSO3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As you can see in the fine print, many of their '16 panelists remain on board so they have a particularly clear look at change over time. The scale of the defections from the major party candidates may seem pretty small, but alone it yields a 4 point shift in Biden's direction — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden opens with an 11 point lead in the USC panel poll--the one that showed Trump leading throughout 2016. (this is in my email and I don't see the toplines on their website yet) https://t.co/xDRhQclJEd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MaggieAstor: I'm in the office for the conventions (with only a couple other people and intense precautions), and it's like a post-apoc… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ASDem apoltaneously? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Look, this is not a complicated election at the moment. The electorate doesn't want to vote to reelect Trump right now. That's probably enough on its own, but making a broad swath of folks like the idea of voting for Biden is all you really need to focus on at this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To me, the definition of a successful convention is if Dems can boost Biden's favorability rating to plus-10 or better and positive case for the guy on biographical, characterological and policy grounds https://t.co/CvBA9oNnqI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, this way of looking at the polls does kind of complicate the so-called shy Trump theories. The most straightforward interpretation of this theory would be consensus on the Biden pct, but Trump lower in live interview formats. That's not what we see here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another important note is that the decline in Biden's lead hasn't been accompanied by a decline in his support. Instead, Biden's now all the way up to 51--which is an extremely high number by historic standards. Trump has gained more, but to a mere 42 https://t.co/84SBtwB40K — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a consequence, I think we have a particularly clear understanding of the state of play right now, despite the CNN poll (which really isn't *that* much of an outlier; it's only 4.5 points off the average) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One interesting thing is that Biden's lead has held firm in the online polls, and the result is a decent convergence between live/online polls heading into the convention (live is blue; red is online; green is IVR). https://t.co/qrl1nlmvjv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Taking the education-weighted, generally live interview 'probability' samples together, it seems pretty clear that Biden's lead has shrunk by a couple of points over the last month, but that he also maintains a fairly comfortable lead. https://t.co/w8WDBNgoAj — PolitiTweet.org