Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Mon Aug 17 11:39:21 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another important note is that the decline in Biden's lead hasn't been accompanied by a decline in his support. Instead, Biden's now all the way up to 51--which is an extremely high number by historic standards. Trump has gained more, but to a mere 42 https://t.co/84SBtwB40K — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As a consequence, I think we have a particularly clear understanding of the state of play right now, despite the CNN poll (which really isn't *that* much of an outlier; it's only 4.5 points off the average) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, this way of looking at the polls does kind of complicate the so-called shy Trump theories. The most straightforward interpretation of this theory would be consensus on the Biden pct, but Trump lower in live interview formats. That's not what we see here — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated