Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tomorrow AM: Times/Siena polls in Florida and Pennsylvania — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: The Biden campaign is also canceling TV ad schedules that had been booked for 10/6-10/12 in TEXAS https://t.co/za53IXZVp8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @michaelcrowley: After all that, Trump seems not to be taking hydroxycholorquine. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AndrewKirell: Chris Wallace just said on Fox that Trump arrived too late in Cleveland to have been tested by the clinic and that there… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: We need a complete and total shutdown of everyone except like five true experts in the entire country of tweeting stuff abou… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If it keeps up we might get a bonus poll out of it heading into the second VP debate, so that could be fun — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Survey response rates are way, way up in our polling so far this week. At some point I'll get a shot to dig-in and see whether it's driven by voters of one party or another — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: White House told Cuomo's office that POTUS would be on this 12:15 call, per people briefed. But it's Pence, not POTUS, who i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @aseitzwald: NEWS: @mikememoli reports Biden has tested NEGATIVE. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dfriedman33: There were just 32 Covid cases reported in DC Thursday. Trump and Melania aren’t part of that. But the scale shows that th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, it is kind of charming that it's been almost exactly 100 years since the last major pandemic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Coronavirus is the 1-100 event. It's not in the training set, but we knew it was happening before the models were published. Going ahead anyway and saying 'oh this is just a normal year with a deep recession' is the underlying issue here https://t.co/TZJqIxp3KK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickgourevitch but what are we even going to ask — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: "In the early hours of Friday, some of Mr. Trump’s aides were discussing ways for him to be seen by the public later in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

good morning everyone — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @lindsaywise: NEW: McConnell-linked Super PAC Senate Leadership Fund has a $7.2 MILLION ad buy today in KANSAS. Radio and TV ads are in… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SeanTrende @DavidNir @kkondik @donnermaps i get why people feel confident making that jump if they get it right. it's not proof that they are right, of course--for the reason sean noted. but like, i certainly see the cause for confidence about your trend if you were right at the end! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SeanTrende @DavidNir @kkondik @donnermaps i just don't see the logic of assuming that there's no change if you don't get the result right. it's certainly *possible* that it's just intercept shift/bias. but i don't see why you'd get to feel confident about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SeanTrende @DavidNir @kkondik @donnermaps not all of them, and the way that they do varies. but the responses still make it clear that there's movement that we don't always see in some other polls https://t.co/e9NYwxisfU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DavidNir @jon_m_rob @kkondik @donnermaps And other polls do show some volatility, despite panels/recalled vote weighting options. RAND '12. USC in '16. Pew ATP '20. They do show some real change, sometimes big real change. How much of our view of 'no change' depends on idiosyncratic samples? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DavidNir @jon_m_rob @kkondik @donnermaps Just with a quick google search (as it was inevitable this existed lol) https://t.co/Q5nGyIXTMj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DavidNir @jon_m_rob @kkondik @donnermaps Is it our retrospective conclusion that Trump would have narrowly won / basically been a tie all along? It's not like the public party weighted polls showed much movement in 2016 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @DavidNir @jon_m_rob @kkondik @donnermaps I see the case the other way in 2012: if you get the result right, and you said it was stable all along. maybe it was. But to your point, that logic doesn't hold up in 2016 and it does pose some interesting questions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickahamed @davidshor @NickRiccardi @MediumBuying @sppeoples and are we really calling atlanta a tipping point state market? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @NickRiccardi @MediumBuying @sppeoples i'm pretty confused if this is supposed to show trump outspending in tipping point state markets — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @davidshor @NickRiccardi @MediumBuying @sppeoples am i reading this entirely backward or something? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @NickRiccardi @MediumBuying @sppeoples which markets are those? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @GeoffRBennett: H.R. McMaster, Trump's former national security adviser, tells @HallieJackson that President Trump "is aiding and abetti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

According to this, Trump's outspent 5:1 in PA over the last month! Doesn't seem out of the question that it could move the needle a bit in the polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are many plausible explanations for the apparent narrowing of the popular vote-Electoral College gap over the last month, including demographics. Money is another. https://t.co/sIssWE831n — PolitiTweet.org