Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Thu Oct 01 19:30:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SeanTrende @DavidNir @kkondik @donnermaps i just don't see the logic of assuming that there's no change if you don't get the result right. it's certainly *possible* that it's just intercept shift/bias. but i don't see why you'd get to feel confident about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SeanTrende @DavidNir @kkondik @donnermaps not all of them, and the way that they do varies. but the responses still make it clear that there's movement that we don't always see in some other polls https://t.co/e9NYwxisfU — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob @SeanTrende @DavidNir @kkondik @donnermaps i get why people feel confident making that jump if they get it right. it's not proof that they are right, of course--for the reason sean noted. but like, i certainly see the cause for confidence about your trend if you were right at the end! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 1, 2020 Hibernated