Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @IChotiner: New Interview: I talked to RCP’s Sean Trende about whether pollsters have fixed the mistakes they made in 2016, why Trump is… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JacobRubashkin we'll see. certainly didn't do a ton for him in '14, though opponent was quite different ofc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What I'll say, though, is that the former scenario--where pollster collapses white/nonwhite--does help explain how you wind up having Young well behind Sullivan, stipulating that Young is still doing well w AK natives like '18 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, it could work out the other way if the pollster doesn't collapse all nonwhite voters, and their sample of AK Natives winds up being too GOP. Then you're upweighting an unrepresentative set of GOP-leaners. I'd guess that's less likely, but IDK. Not much transparency — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, depends on how the poll is constructed, but I'd guess not. If you don't have many Alaska natives, I'd guess you'd weight on white v. nonwhite. If we assume 'other' nonwhite = D, then the poll would mainly only be biased when GOP wins AK Native vote https://t.co/LYTJ2DC7nL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JonMIPol: @Nate_Cohn For what it's worth, I do believe Galvin outperformed Begich in Anchorage https://t.co/vsesgYoi5w — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This year, I don't know whether to expect Sullivan to have any special strength among Alaska Natives. But it is interesting that most polls again seem to have Young running behind Sullivan. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In fact, eye-balling the results by district, it looks like Gavin might have outdone Begich in Anchorage. If so, then it really does makes sense that you could have Gavin leading the ticket in the poll, but behind other Dems on Election Day, if you don't get Alaska Natives — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DLeonhardt: Explicitly refusing to answer a question is rarely smart or sustainable in politics. Remember Elizabeth Warren and the qu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the group is so hard to reach that you can't even weight them up, and you end up clumping it in with the more reliably Democratic 'other nonwhite' category, then you can wind up in a spot where you're pretty good in, say, the presidential race but maybe underestimate Young — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, it's interesting that the one pure nonpartisan poll here also showed Gavin up in the days ahead of the 2018 election, and Young did quite well among the state's Alaska Native population--which is generally believed to be a particularly tough group to reach in surveys — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's something I didn't realize: Alyse Galvin (IND, but Dem nominee) has led Don Young (R) in all three polls of AK-AL this cycle. Mainly Dem/progressive sponsored surveys, but still interesting https://t.co/bh38WuAvTx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Something I didn't realize: Elyse Galvin (D) has led Don Young (R) in led every poll of AK-AL. They're mainly Dem/progressive group sponsored, but still kind of interesting https://t.co/bh38WuAvTx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict i think that'd be a fine outcome for biden, but you're the one who put 2:1 as your threshold! and i don't think 81-18 is the limit on what the election day vote can look like. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict yeah, so am i. if you think 62/37 or whatever in the early vote will rule out 66/33 in the end, *that's* a mistake — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Taniel yes, saying 'we can't say a damn thing' is acceptable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict even at 75 you're just not out of the woods on trump cleaning 2/3 of the major party vote. Trump>80 on eday and 100k total ballots are very, very easy to imagine there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I will implore *everyone* on this website not to say a damn thing about the results in Florida unless or until… https://t.co/wiHUGzAfzB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

TLDR: I would not consider this game over for the president. Not at all. https://t.co/sSdbwQi6Ue — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Honestly, I think this is a terrible mistake. It is extremely obvious that the mail-eday vote will be biased in ways that go way beyond our prior experiences, expectations, or what's implied by the party registration. Just wait for it to finish. https://t.co/putci8ttYS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So that's pretty tough in this case. We're getting in toward three weeks until an election. We could try it and be stuck with a real mess, and we probably couldn't go back for a second round, even if a first try yielded the kind of insights that might let us do it well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, some states definitely pose novel challenges, and it's hard to build a solution until you've tried the state and seen what it's really like. We've certainly ran into unexpectedly tough states/CDs, struggled on take one, and figured it out with benefit of experience. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

On the other hand, there was a whole lot of talk about how hard Alaska was in 2014 and the final poll averages in the Senate were better than a lot of places? The polls so far this year seem pretty in line with reasonable, fundamentals based expectations, as well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think there are real reasons why Alaska is hard. The Alaska Native issue is real, though I do wonder if it's a bit overstated given their share of the electorate. There are *a lot* of people with missing age or party registration. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Alaska squeaked it out. By reputation, it's a really tough one. https://t.co/OEtOa8zQ6l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So I can certainly see the case for his pattern if you really do think you can win TX, but you also know that it's awfully difficult to justify spending 10s of millions on your 410th electoral vote — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This area was Beto's major weakness in '18. We know in national surveys that the Latino vote is a *relative* weakness for Biden. And these markets are a lot cheaper than the big metro areas, which are extremely costly to try and play in — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW, I do think there's a very good case to be made for Biden to just hammer the relatively Latino South TX markets and stay out of super expensive DAL/HOU https://t.co/aueEVIBBY0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JoshSchwerin @Redistrict in NE02 or everywhere? if it's everywhere, not sure why it would effect the order — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@LavinaRicky their approach is unique, rigorous, and all of your concerns are misplaced — PolitiTweet.org