Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 10 16:22:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now, it could work out the other way if the pollster doesn't collapse all nonwhite voters, and their sample of AK Natives winds up being too GOP. Then you're upweighting an unrepresentative set of GOP-leaners. I'd guess that's less likely, but IDK. Not much transparency — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, depends on how the poll is constructed, but I'd guess not. If you don't have many Alaska natives, I'd guess you'd weight on white v. nonwhite. If we assume 'other' nonwhite = D, then the poll would mainly only be biased when GOP wins AK Native vote https://t.co/LYTJ2DC7nL — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Could this mean polls could be overestimating Sullivan if Gross is doing better with Natives?

Posted Oct. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What I'll say, though, is that the former scenario--where pollster collapses white/nonwhite--does help explain how you wind up having Young well behind Sullivan, stipulating that Young is still doing well w AK natives like '18 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 10, 2020 Hibernated