Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@hezaproject (to be clear, that's just a different way of saying that biden has led NYT/Siena polls of NC RVs over the last year, which is a fairly public fact) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Mainly turnout levels. We'll reach the point where a 2016 turnout is basically impossible, either mathematically or given the number of highly reliable voters still outstanding https://t.co/bQ3Iw2KVJP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, I do think this data is highly relevant for interpreting the results on Election Night. The vote-by-method gaps are going to be really, really big in some states, and there's basically nothing that should surprise you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our polling so far, Democrats and Republicans are just as likely to say they'll vote, but Democrats are way, way likelier to say they'll vote early. So Ds can do basically anything in the advanced vote and I'll still think the likeliest outcome is GOP counters on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that I'm pretty much of the view that the early vote numbers tell us basically nothing about the ultimate partisan balance of the electorate in this particular election, unless we basically reach the point that certain scenarios are mathematically eliminated — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We've done three NC polls over the last year. We can join them up to the NC state absentee data, so we know whether they've voted early or not. Here's how they've split so far: Abs: Biden 69, Trump 22 (n=295) Early: Biden 55, Trump 35 (n=172) No vote: Trump 46, Biden 42 (n=2083) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MediumBuying: Alright it's late Friday afternoon, so y'all know the drill -- The Biden campaign is canceling TV ad schedules that had… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

as an aside, do they do national polls? https://t.co/bId2KenbuL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ameya_pa yes x2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jcrosscall the fairbanks/southeast category is in green on the map — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JoseManrique93 right — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(that's the green and light blue parts of the map) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump only won two of the six regions but won them bigly: the Fairbanks/Southeast region and Kenai/Matanuska Susitna. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The six regions were urban Anchorage, suburban Anchorage, Fairbanks/Southeast, Juneau/Peninsula, Kenai/Matanuska Susitna, the rest of the state https://t.co/xtj1bYpriS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The sample is stratified and weighted by six regions, but we don't report crosstabs with fewer than 50 respondents so we collapsed them into two for this purpose https://t.co/X1x2wlpPV8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as an aside, the presidential race is a point closer here than the rounded numbers suggest, with Trump leading by 5 points, 44.69 to 39.45. Now that we're getting close, probably shouldn't overlook a point here and there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing that's clear in the poll: the GOP has a big Anchorage problem, which is basically acting like a very cold, dark part of the Sun Belt. The rest of the state, however, isn't really budging. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What to make of those third party tallies? I mean, I'd sure guess a lot of it will drop off at the ballot box. But Alaska does have a reputation for backing minor party candidates. Looking at their attitudes about Trump, it's not super obvious that anyone's poised to benefit — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In the US House rematch, Don Young leads Alyse Galvin 49-41, about the same as the outcome two years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republicans lead in Alaska, according to a new Times/Siena poll, as voters sour on the president but hesitate to embrace Dems. -- Trump leads Biden, 45 to 39. Jorgensen (L) at 8. Sullivan leads Gross, 45 to 37. Howe (AIP) at 10. Trump approval 47/47 https://t.co/9eanxTaGGh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

this is not necessarily an exhaustive list of next week's polling--I'm not announcing anything until we enter the field; could always change our minds! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Next up after today's Alaska result: Georgia and the US https://t.co/FuxTub58ar https://t.co/ug1LsMzKNa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@FiveThirtyEight @RealClearNews — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A slight correction on yesterday's SC poll: the crosstabs say that the survey was fielded from 10/9-10/15. It was fielded from 10/9-10/14. (I was sent updated crosstabs with the right field period on it, but I missed the email until now--so it's on me) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MiamiNewTimes: Guess what: She's voting Biden. https://t.co/8CJAtoBz8H — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

cxn: Trump 49, Clinton 34 among 2016 voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The ballot test described both Gross and Gavin as 'the Democratic nominee' in keeping with recent court rulings https://t.co/5N8dGuNMwQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And besides all that bonus for you, the standard stuff you're fairly accustomed to: party ID is D 17, R 28--by far the least amount of major party ID we've had. recalled '16 vote among '16 voters is Trump 49, Clinton 36. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I did think the AK Native/Native American sample basically 'looked' right. It's only a sample of like N=45 so I'm not going to do some kind of deep dive and it's withheld from the tabs. But the group backed the Biden (D), Gross (D), and Don Young (R), which fits recent elections — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As it is, the raw sample is 11% Alaska Native/Native American--the target was 13%. Real outlying areas come in at 9% v. 10% target. That's after stratifying in ways to really increase our shot out there, which speaks to the difficulty--but also the extent it was managable — PolitiTweet.org