Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 17 00:59:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that I'm pretty much of the view that the early vote numbers tell us basically nothing about the ultimate partisan balance of the electorate in this particular election, unless we basically reach the point that certain scenarios are mathematically eliminated — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We've done three NC polls over the last year. We can join them up to the NC state absentee data, so we know whether they've voted early or not. Here's how they've split so far: Abs: Biden 69, Trump 22 (n=295) Early: Biden 55, Trump 35 (n=172) No vote: Trump 46, Biden 42 (n=2083) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our polling so far, Democrats and Republicans are just as likely to say they'll vote, but Democrats are way, way likelier to say they'll vote early. So Ds can do basically anything in the advanced vote and I'll still think the likeliest outcome is GOP counters on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 17, 2020 Hibernated