Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gelliottmorris i don't really ever recall seeing >400 as your modal outcome fwiw (not saying it hasn't been, but it doesn't look terribly close to being it today, either) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd note that a Biden tally somewhere over 400 E.V. has been the modal FiveThirtyEight outcome in the Electoral College for a while https://t.co/w1VW2cT6YN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

So what do I make of the early voting data in Florida so far, with respect to our poll? Essentially nothing. I don't think it says anything, one way or another, about either our poll result or anyone's chances. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And conversely, 29% of people who said they intend to vote by mail hadn't requested an absentee ballot at the time the survey was conducted (while 13% of those who wanted to vote on Election Day had!) https://t.co/TtuAI9Gz1N — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Now of course, all of these have big margins of error! And the preferred vote method of respondents is not the same as their actual method! Check this out: only 60% of people who *actually* have absentee ballot requests told us they intend/prefer (forget) to vote by mail https://t.co/pBXo7nRupj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And here's the same by vote choice! https://t.co/YD6JhNtxG9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's that same question by *party identification,* where now the Democrats have the edge in party ID among this group https://t.co/MGBggrM3SZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In our Florida poll, here's how the *party registration* of Florida RVs breaks down by their *stated* intention of voting. On balance I'd say it's pretty close to what we see so far? https://t.co/0FANIf4Yno — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Before we go any further, I do want to caution: we're talking about small subsamples here. Each of these groups--self-reported in person, election day, mail voters--is like 250 people and have a significant margin of error! You shouldn't expect things to line up with precision! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well I haven't taken a look at this at all yet, since ... we haven't even had one day of early voting in Florida yet! But let's take a look, just to explore the differences between three things: party identification, party registration, and vote choice https://t.co/oj0P1oqoem — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A fine point -- and an issue with the shy Trump analysis in 2016, as well (shy Johnson voters in WI?) https://t.co/FOeLcWt0bl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be clear, I don't think this is a big issue. But there's no reason to assume that measurement error only runs only one way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Also as an aside, we do have a respondent who admitted misrepresenting their views in a followup interview because of low initial trust in the survey and ... they were a Dem https://t.co/9IPFY6ILrY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And my point here was that our polls help reconcile this--they often show the IRL breakdown of mail voters, but show Biden doing way better. Now, polls could still be wrong, but there's no contradiction https://t.co/jAz2uFX1Nq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No, but the view I was replying to basically holds something like: 'the polls said biden would win mail voters by, say, 50 but by registration the absentees are, say, D+25, and therefore GOP is beating the polls https://t.co/IL45QSLJeC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yes, but excelled across the board compared to those who didn't request an absentee ballot from the same party https://t.co/bRd9ZusqlX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, you know the party registration of absentees. Our poll reports their stated pres. vote preference. Those aren't the same. For ex: our FL absentee-requesting voters were D+14 by reg., D45-R31. Those same voters were Biden 61, Trump 30. https://t.co/wtP2EaeUO7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well, I'd posit that if the Trump voters were lying, that we'd see a lot of GOP primary voters / reg. GOP saying they were voting for Biden (as we know the reg/vt hist of our respondents; not subject to lying). But we don't see that. https://t.co/uFYCWx400l — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@zackryanfrank72 @Barnes_Law @Politics_Polls @YouGovAmerica @CBSNewsPoll but to be clear: this approach provides ~no additional insight into who will win beyond the topline poll result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@zackryanfrank72 @Barnes_Law @Politics_Polls @YouGovAmerica @CBSNewsPoll if the polls are wrong about the winner, this method will also be wrong about the winner--as it was in 2016. but it will probably get the gap between early and election day about right, as it did then. you can nudge everything a few points to the right if you don't buy the polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict 👀 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Redistrict how many whole foods — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jlpulice why are we confident about whether an anthropomorphic, living candle--which i believe came from a cursed human--does or does not have ACE2 receptors? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

uh why are we confident about whether an anthropomorphic, living candle--which i believe came from a cursed human--does or does not have ACE2 receptors? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: Update: we're midway through October, and still no sign of a "shift" at the district level. If anything, seeing increasingl… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @kabir_here: AZ: Biden +3 WI: Biden +5 Mail ballots pouring in, with remaining voters saying they've decided Biden voters say big reas… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It doesn't look like we're getting many polls this weekend, which probably sets up a wave heading into the final debate. That said, the final debate is so close to the end this year that I can imagine some just waiting until the final stretch. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

the science is still outstanding on the matter https://t.co/8gDCxtopqi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

that's a lot of indoor singing without masks, and i did not have the impression that this was a well ventilated castle https://t.co/nZpOfu9rGe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't love the 'Biden today v. Clinton four years ago comparisons.' I just don't think there's much value in it. But even so, Biden's still running about 3 points ahead of Clinton in the national surveys on this date, with far fewer undecided voters — PolitiTweet.org