Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New CNN/SSRS polls show Biden ahead in four battleground state polls MI Biden+12, 53-41 AZ Biden+4, 50-46 WI Biden+8, 52-44 NC Biden+6, 51-45 https://t.co/kzfD9zlhZX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my mind, I don't think there's been a clear relationship between recalled vote and whether our results have been better or worse for Dems than expected. But someone with more time than me could probably figure that out! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some additional factors. People move or die, changing the result in unclear ways. And the survey isn't trying to represent 2016 voters, it's representing 2020. If, say, our Dems are a little too young, we might have fewer Clinton vts without any effect on Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Historically, yes you'd expect the incumbent to do better on recalled vote. There's evidence that's less true in 2020, but it might still be a little true. https://t.co/Q8q975WOIG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Party identification, party registration, and how respondents said they voted in 2016: AZ: R+3, R+4, Trump+7 FL: R+2, R+1, Trump+4 PA: D+3, D+5, Trump+4 WI: R+1, no party reg., Trump+3 https://t.co/PcOsLHIsgk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(TBH, more than we targeted and I probably would have added GA or IA or something if I could go back) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The N: AZ 1252 FL 1451 PA 1862 WI 1253 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The last interviews are done in Pennsylvania and Florida, and with that our polling for 2020 is over — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pennsylvania and Florida are still in the field this afternoon, but we'll see this evening https://t.co/Hee74nzEx0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Tomorrow at 5AM: we conclude our polling for the cycle with the final NYT/Siena polls of Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin https://t.co/5fi3Fifbnn https://t.co/51oyhELzJH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is kind of confusing https://t.co/47pW6WTDXX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Well the final poll was Clinton+4, and in that survey 48% of voters had a college degree This poll is Biden+5, and 38% have a degree. Does that fix everything? Not necessarily. Does it help? Yes https://t.co/7hD0DMWqyT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These sample sizes are small, so this kind of change could very easily just be noise. But I do think the majority of PA polls over the last week or two have shown a subtle shift toward Trump that I don't think we see in the other northern battlegrounds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Muhlenberg College with a final PA poll: Biden+5, 49-44. They were at +7 about a week ago https://t.co/e6u4b7PcK1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Where we stand heading into the last weekend of pre-election polls: Biden well ahead, but waiting on Pennsylvania https://t.co/lbbTRKol3K — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @brianneDMR: 🚨Here we go! Our LAST Iowa Poll of 2020 drops tomorrow night. Senate results coming to you at 6 p.m. CT, presidential resul… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @MonmouthPoll: COMING MONDAY, bright and early: Our final poll of the cycle will be in... PENNSYLVANIA! [But you already guessed that, d… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We called folks off of a list of registered voters. Every night, Texas posts a list of the registered voters who actually voted--you can even download that yourself. We then go back and see who voted, and what they told us at the time we contacted them https://t.co/tHZ1IlhMWF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm definitely looking forward to joining up the state early voting file with our two Texas polls when the data's all updated. There will be a lot to consider https://t.co/CnZNqkktGF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

All out in Pennsylvania on the last day makes sense for Biden. Biden's clearly up in the Clinton states, plus MI/WI--leaving him one state away. And as I noted last night, PA is really the only one possible soft spot for Biden in the public polling https://t.co/GvAIlLVjuY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The CCES is a huge academic survey of 50k folks. It will eventually power a lot of the research you see about the election. It shows some familiar trends (2016 CCES in paren): White 45-50 (40-54) Black 86-9 (89-8) Hispanic 59-35 (64-29) https://t.co/jknycTOCCH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @b_schaffner: It's here! Preliminary results from the 2020 C(C)ES pre-election survey (N=71,789 adults) Explore here: https://t.co/5fgH… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden with an edge across the final Quinnipiac state polls FL - Biden 45-42 OH - Biden 48-43 IA - Trump 47-46 PA - Biden 51-44 https://t.co/BTtIRInDyX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PollsAndVotes: In my @MULawPoll yesterday 7% were "undecided or declined to answer". Most of those were early voters declining to answe… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Those same voters said they backed Clinton 39-35 in 2016. If that's right, then a lot of the Trump-->Biden swing is already banked here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

60% of the likely electorate said they had already voted, and they backed Biden 55-39. Party reg was D40, R31, so very close to the current state figures (39-31) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

97 percent of registered voters said they were at least 'very likely to vote,' so good luck trying to figure out the electorate based on self-reported turnout this year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

lol this website is ridiculous. It's Biden 48, Trump 45, minor cands 3, Undecided/Refuse 3. https://t.co/YlSl0hW0yE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Honestly, I thought almost everything about the composition of this sample was a little conservative. The black share of the electorate, by voter file race, came in at 20--lower than 2016. R+3 party ID and Trump+6 recalled vote arguably to the right. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Joe Biden leads in North Carolina, according to the final Times/Siena poll of the state Biden 48, Trump 45 Cunningham 46, Tillis 43 Cooper 51, Forest 42 https://t.co/S1ytZ3cbj9 — PolitiTweet.org