Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 31 20:04:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some additional factors. People move or die, changing the result in unclear ways. And the survey isn't trying to represent 2016 voters, it's representing 2020. If, say, our Dems are a little too young, we might have fewer Clinton vts without any effect on Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Historically, yes you'd expect the incumbent to do better on recalled vote. There's evidence that's less true in 2020, but it might still be a little true. https://t.co/Q8q975WOIG — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Is there some reason basically all your polls have a higher recalled Trump margin than what actually hap… https://t.co/JJLr4K7445

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my mind, I don't think there's been a clear relationship between recalled vote and whether our results have been better or worse for Dems than expected. But someone with more time than me could probably figure that out! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated