Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Sat Oct 31 20:02:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Historically, yes you'd expect the incumbent to do better on recalled vote. There's evidence that's less true in 2020, but it might still be a little true. https://t.co/Q8q975WOIG — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Is there some reason basically all your polls have a higher recalled Trump margin than what actually hap… https://t.co/JJLr4K7445

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Party identification, party registration, and how respondents said they voted in 2016: AZ: R+3, R+4, Trump+7 FL: R+2, R+1, Trump+4 PA: D+3, D+5, Trump+4 WI: R+1, no party reg., Trump+3 https://t.co/PcOsLHIsgk — PolitiTweet.org

@Nate_Cohn Can you give us the 2016 voter recall now please?

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are some additional factors. People move or die, changing the result in unclear ways. And the survey isn't trying to represent 2016 voters, it's representing 2020. If, say, our Dems are a little too young, we might have fewer Clinton vts without any effect on Biden — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 31, 2020 Hibernated