Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If the PA SOS page is accurate, then there are enough absentee votes left for Biden to win Pennsylvania https://t.co/t9mxFVpeCQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mcimaps: Miami-Dade in 2016 vs Miami-Dade in 2020 Massive gains in the Cuban community and in non-Cuban Hispanic areas. The same ar… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New Wayne County ballots will bring Trump lead down to about 1.5 points in Michigan. With Biden ahead in AZ/NE02/N… https://t.co/KcAqOU5vRp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And we have a very clear picture in Georgia, thanks to the needle's analysis of the vote by precinct x method--stip… https://t.co/G9GkgXzkMH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Arizona's a mess. Late mail ballots usually lean young/Democratic here, but we also know the outstanding mail ballo… https://t.co/g4AxFXRBu0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Wisconsin is what it is; I have nothing to add to the many tweets analyzing the situation there in recent hours. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The PA situation is obviously far from completion, but we do know there are at least 1.4 mlilion outstanding absent… https://t.co/OhSQQdVirj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have less concrete data on what's out in Mi than PA, but there are many reasons to think Biden probably catches… https://t.co/I8DR2Irgam — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is a pretty good set of news for Democrats in Nevada. It's not going to be called when the margin is this narr… https://t.co/9JXdO0NjIr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @RalstonReports: So here's where we are in NV: There are tens of thousands of mail ballots still to be counted in Clark: 337K have been… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RalstonReports Trump favored? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @reidepstein: Update: The clerk has returned with printer ink! https://t.co/aj9bxLljNA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BritSchmidtNews: @mattsmith_news Green Bay just put its last few absentee ballots through the machines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

People have done an absolutely *terrible* job of remembering all the things they were saying before the election https://t.co/2AHcV9BuPn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DecisionDeskHQ: WI Presidential Election Results - Biden Takes The Lead Biden (D): 49% (1,551,268 votes) Trump (R): 49% (1,549,127 vot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Milwaukee? Easily. Across the whole state of PA? Probably https://t.co/5YC2nxuHnz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Based on my replies, I don't think people have fully internalized how Democratic these mail and absentee ballots wi… https://t.co/OxcndVQFdx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In a way, the situation right now is vaguely reminiscent of the situation at 11PM in 2016... but in reverse (and in… https://t.co/YTX4SVRTBN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Trump's lead in Georgia down to 2.5 points; needle unmoved on the news, with Biden still a very narrow favorite Nic… https://t.co/fLIZrhaMNV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden is ahead by 5 in Nevada now that we've got the early vote in Clark and Washoe. That's probably enough, and it… https://t.co/ZDrXl5oYBC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickSvitek: Trump has won Zapata County — just north of the Rio Grande Valley along the border — by 6 points, 53% to 47%, per SOS re… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

An important factor in Georgia: a lot of the remaining vote in the Atlanta area is actually early and absentee, wh… https://t.co/WtR68Zq7cp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, I do think there's a certain overconfidence in 2018's polling error. I'm guilty of it myself: I find it hard to see Biden losing Arizona, for instance. But it's tough to argue that the 2018 poll error is a lock, and the Dems did nearly win it that year! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, I do think it's a stretch to argue that we're trapped in 2018's polling error--and the Dems did nearly win it that year! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's really hard to design a poll around nailing the 3/4% of the electorate that's Cuban Hispanic, or the 3% of the electorate in the white, rural Panhandle counties. If you're off there, good luck getting out of it by weighting up Puerto Ricans or Midwestern retirees — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think there are real reasons why Florida is super tough for polling. It's super diverse, and the GOP depends on big strength among tiny groups who aren't always easy to sample and arguably even harder to weight on — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's really amazing just how much people discount Dems in Florida after 2018. It could be totally justified! I certainly get it. But it is fascinating https://t.co/lLWsSRc7TM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In contrast, fracking was popular by just a 44-42 margin in our national survey — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Perhaps a factor in the relative tightening in PA v. other states: Pennsylvania voters supported fracking, 52-27, in the Times/Siena poll https://t.co/L65N7pNFlD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This should make MI better than PA, in terms of the pace of the Election Night count. We'll find out how much better tomorrow https://t.co/JugttZudGk — PolitiTweet.org