Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's really hard to design a poll around nailing the 3/4% of the electorate that's Cuban Hispanic, or the 3% of the electorate in the white, rural Panhandle counties. If you're off there, good luck getting out of it by weighting up Puerto Ricans or Midwestern retirees — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

OTOH, I do think there's a certain overconfidence in 2018's polling error. I'm guilty of it myself: I find it hard to see Biden losing Arizona, for instance. But it's tough to argue that the 2018 poll error is a lock, and the Dems did nearly win it that year! — PolitiTweet.org