Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I think that's still a pretty good guess, though getting from Biden +75/80k to 100k depends on two kinds of hazy votes that may be worse (or better) for Biden than I've roughly penciled-in: the 10k late absentees and provisional ballots https://t.co/T8rIKic2xi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @MattGrossmann you'd think that, but check out those quinnipiac polls — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende i don't think i was first to come up with this one! maybe @JMilesColeman — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The caution in close races is not strictly about the recount threshold, even though the .5 heuristic often lines up with automatic recount thresholds. https://t.co/Mu6TKhL6l8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The AP does not use the 'apparent winner' classification, unlike most news networks. So they don't really call races within a half point, regardless of the recount threshold — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why no call here? Well, the same baseline level of caution as AZ applies here. There's also the automatic recount at .5 pts. This, to my mind, does not preclude the 'apparent winner' characterization used by most networks, so I think we're mainly talking AZ-like caution here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To my mind, Georgia's just as clear as Arizona--if not more so. Biden's up by a similar amount, and we know he's winning the provisional ballots by a two-to-one margin. Half of the counties--mostly GOP counties--are certified. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do not believe the AP would call this race if they hadn't called it already. If you want proof, consider the next race: Georgia https://t.co/44KVTKqUNV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't think the non-call reflects a considered judgment that Trump has a realistic path. I do think when the race is this close, though, that there are 1-1000 risks of irregularities, data errors and so on. So my guess: it's just caution with a margin < .5 pts. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Next up is Arizona, where Trump has no realistic hope of mounting a comeback but where none of the news network decision desks have made a projection (excluding the erroneous AP/Fox call on Election Night). Why isn't this one called? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

First, we've uncalled NJ-07, which the AP called some time ago. In general, we automatically accept AP calls (a few exceptions, like top presidential states--where we independently evaluate whether to accept). I think we've seen enough to say the NJ-07 call was premature — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've got a lot of questions about race calls in my 'interactions' today, so let's go through a quick update — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @JMilesColeman: Last night, @DecisionDeskHQ called Arizona for Biden. He got there, in large part, by flipping its most populous county,… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I do think the data supports the 'apparent winner' call in GA, tho I've never been quite clear on when they feel comfortable calling races < .5 pts I don't think 'likely winner' is a formal characterization, but it would have been useful last week https://t.co/eucViRqrZI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's a distinct possibility that the 2016 turnout was more favorable for Dems than 2020. Still too soon to say, of course, but there's a serious argument that it's likelier than not at this point https://t.co/M9M0yf2OLi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @SeanTrende: This may be the most amazingly catastrophic branding of the decade. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

What if 'GOTV efforts' are a lot less powerful in mobilizing turnout than, say, everyone around you going to vote. Election Day being a nonevent in your neighbrhood/community/peer group may be demobilizing https://t.co/NVxouYcXx8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As an aside, I do wonder whether Democrats will rethink whether mail/early voting is a great deal, given how badly they get clobbered on Election Day--the time when low propensity, election winning voters go to the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I have no doubt--based on great data in FL/NV, and fuzzier data elsewhere--that GOP beat our final turnout estimates, and perhaps by a lot Whether that's only a modest or big part of the polling error is still an open question https://t.co/uVL5A7T5Km — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Yes. Except there are millions of his supporters who don't realize it's performance art and will believe what he says. https… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I'll be interested to look at: does substate polling error correlate with census nonresponse https://t.co/nqoWAM8Jd3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier our final poll was 38.9, 34.7 in NV. so that's a tad better for Dems than IRL, though not vastly so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier link? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@tbonier where besides FL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@henryolsenEPPC those are accepted ballots — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticalKiwi no — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The state absentee file provides an account of people who actually voted--by my count, 50.5k actually voted early in Orange County. It shouldn't be subject to any uncertainty about turnout--though I could have messed up! https://t.co/a3SOSaYxH3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, even this wouldn't get you to a Biden victory! He needs a lot more than an extra 10k. But I do wonder whether these oddities have created an extra degree of caution beyond the outstanding raw provisionals / late absentees, which just don't add up to a credible case for Ds — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

IDK if that's true, but it sure seems to me like Edison Research's vote left estimate thinks the same thing https://t.co/2m8VopIRMU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take one example that could help Democrats: I don't really understand why there aren't ~10k more early votes in Orange County (Chapel Hill). There are about 40k, but the absentee file--as I interpret it, and maybe I messed up--suggests there should be 50k — PolitiTweet.org