Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We have *some* precise data. We have exact results by county and precinct. We have voter file turnout data of varying quality. This can help us say a few broad things, like changes turnout and shifts that correlate with geography — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We're talking about, what, a ~2 pt swing nationwide and in many of the critical battleground states? Without fantastic data, it's just too small for us to decompose that modest movement in terms of turnout, changes in the composition of eligible voters, changes in attitudes, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obviously, the election outcome is quite a bit different than in 2016--at least for the purposes of determining control of government. But from the standpoint of the numbers, this was just not a very different election from 2016 in many of the states that matter most--like PA/WI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I see a lot of talk about this article, and I don't think it's really worth any attention my part. I will take this as an opportunity to highlight something fairly tragic about this election: we don't really know what happened in the detail we'd like https://t.co/dcaA9a6xja — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

None of these are Detroit, which had 49% turnout. They're not even in Michigan. They're Minnesota--google them! Now why over 100% in Minnesota? The state has same day registration (unlike MI), so you can get more voters than pre-election registrants https://t.co/0XmkrjzNCA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But since many of you are too lazy to do the prescribed google searches, let me help you https://t.co/QUavvDGJwM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The president of a very large country in North America said it, among others, and it's not true for registered voters either https://t.co/iRTM9yN0nb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If we had an election where every state had photo ID, in-person voting, and reported all of its results at once we would be in... exactly the same place — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can keep going here. The point is that the case for 'fraud' is so bad that it's quite clear it only exists for one reason: they don't like the result. Nothing could have been done to avoid this, and that was obvious even before the '16 election--before the mail surge. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You've got folks convinced there's something strange about 'vote dumps'--AKA, populous jurisdictions reporting their results. If you've got an issue with it... you just have an issue with them having results... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You've got folks convinced that there were fewer mail ballot requests than mail votes in Pennsylvania. A google search can disabuse you here, as well--and worst of all this was clear before the election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

You've got folks convinced that there were more votes than people in Detroit. All you have to do is do is google search 'detroit population' and 'detroit election results 2020' to learn that it's wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The evidence for a 'rigged' election is so preposterous as of late that it's difficult to argue that any series of reforms would have avoided this mess — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the issues with this year's complaints of a 'rigged' election this year is that the case is so preposterous that it's clear there's nothing that could have been done to avoid it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Notice, btw, that Philadelphia, Wayne, Milawukee and DeKalb counties all stand out for... below average increases in Biden vote tallies — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And to be clear, this is in raw votes--in many cases, the biggest increases are high population growth areas where Trump tallies surged as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Biden has more than 80 million votes--a 27% increase over Clinton's 63 million in 2016. Here's where he padded his tallies by more (green) or less (purple) than average https://t.co/gRuJfQr9XV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It seems that their figures are from... the wrong election https://t.co/gZpB6IVEBT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Pennsylvania mailed out more than 3 million absentee ballots. This was known to everyone, including the Trump campaign, before the election. They even know the names and addresses. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One possibility is that Pennsylvania committed extremely brazen and obvious election fraud, unbeknownst to everyone except the person quoted by the president. The other possibility is that the president is completely wrong. It's the latter. https://t.co/d41Z4ESoac — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Redistrict: The biggest top-of-ticket underperformance by any House incumbent in the country? Rep. Ilhan Omar (D). Results in #MN05: B… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbarro Belle is an Obama—> clinton—> trump voter — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Bakari_Sellers @UpshotNYT the black share of the electorate dropped in georgia; i'm aware of no evidence to the contrary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@Dylan_Sandas @MattBruenig They counted their mail absentee vote since whenever you last looked — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SawyerHackett Here's an '08-20 https://t.co/kkPifYSCRl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Obama won the 'tipping point' by 5.3 pts or whatever, while Biden won his by .6 https://t.co/CrdfAUNdgT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yeah, and many online Bernie folks were doing the same thing in the 2016 primary. It also reminds me that this is the first time in a very long while (1976, really) that the Republicans lost a truly close election, unless you count 2012. https://t.co/Meoos0iiNX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Check out the discontinuity along the MO-AR border on the 12-16 shift and the lack of a discontinuity on the 12-20 map. The Clinton brand still had some appeal down there! https://t.co/N1DJgoYRHV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The tense here is a relatively clear acknowledgment of the state of the evidence as it stands now https://t.co/wK5RAnsPnQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The tense is here is a relatively clear of an acknowledgment of the state of the evidence as they stand https://t.co/wK5RAnsPnQ — PolitiTweet.org