Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickRuffini: ACKSHUALLY https://t.co/yq9DaPTd9y https://t.co/YzKscspo38 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

When we get a little further in, we'll try and glean a few lessons. For now, there are a lot of crosscutting patterns with some odd obstacles ahead (holidays!) and I think it's probably best to wait until we're at the other side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I continue to think it's too soon to read much into this data. The major takeaway continues to be that this is going to be a high turnout election, and it's still too early to try and be confident about whether the voting augurs for a notable turnout edge for either side — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's far too early to get into that calculation. For one, absentee voting is behind for some pretty understandable reasons. For another, who knows what the early voting pace will look like after the holidays — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, it's possible they might well need to beat out their early voting numbers from the general to compensate for a dropoff in the number of absentee voters, who are far more Democratic — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Yesterday was also the first day where the Democratic share of in-person early voters, as defined by partisan vote history, was better for them than it was in the general (dark line = runoff; light = general) https://t.co/4Un4xOLC5e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting is still proceeding at a brisk pace in the Georgia runoff, where nearly 150k voted yesterday--a hair above the third day of early voting in 2020 general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, those underlying demographic characteristics are a reminder that absentee voting can work well for the GOP, as it has before. Indeed, early absentee requests in GA were GOP leaning, before the president decided he'd rather bash absentee voting than play to win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, those underlying demographic characteristics a reminder that absentee voting can work well to the GOP, as it has before. Indeed, early absentee requests in GA were quite Republican leaning, before the president decided he'd rather bash absentee voting than play to win — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In Georgia, 72% of absentee voters voted in a recent primary v. 49% of election day voters. More than 40% of absentees were over age 65, v. just 11 percent of election day voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

FWIW, absentee voters are generally older, likely, reliable voters. Low turnout voters are likeliest to show up on Election Day https://t.co/fo00FJ0FfN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: Pam Roach, a Republican who is the most unpredictable politician I've ever covered, led an effort to dissolve a health dep… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We also have absentee requests and ballots. That whole process is lagging the general, simply because there's less lead time for this race than the general. How that shifts from the general and how that interacts with early voting is an open question still — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I should note that there are other confounding factors to keep in mind. There are a bunch of holidays before this election that didn't exist before the general. I'm make a rare prediction and posit that early voting will be down on Christmas compared to the equiv day from Oct — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Days 1&2 were the only weekdays that the Dems won in the general, so if higher turnout keeps up on GOP-friendly days *and* if the GOP keeps outperforming its vote share, then we could revisit this interpretation by the end of early voting. But for now, better to wait and see — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems won day 1/2, as they did in the general, and they netted more votes out of day 1/2 than they did last time due to the higher turnout. And since the other weekdays of early voting were GOP, and 88% of these EVs were general EVs, we'd expect higher turnout to tap into more GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A few people are curious why I don't take much from the GOP share of the early vote being higher than the general, and that's mainly because the turnout is so much higher. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jonmacmillan https://t.co/r6axkJDQKK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ResisterSis1 we know the party of most of these folks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We'll probably have to wait until all of the early voting is done before we can try and make a comparison, since there are a lot of crosscutting trends, but at the moment I'd guess we won't ever able to say anything particularly insightful about the electorate v. the general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And as with yesterday, I don't really take much from the data so far, except that we have every indication of another high turnout election, with no party obviously poised to enjoy a meaningful turnout edge compared to what they had in the general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Demographically, yesterday's voters were a lot like the second day of early voters in the general--which was also true of day one's voters. And also like day one, yesterday's turnout was at once much higher than the general and a tad more Republican than the same day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

No, I don't think this augurs for a higher turnout in the general--at least not yet. 98% of these voters turned out in the general--as long as that's true, this level of voting (with respect to the general) won't be sustainable — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another big day of early voting in Georgia: 167k voted yesterday, about the same as Monday and up from 129k on the second day of early voting in October — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

"affective polarization” and “tribalism” were no longer sufficient to capture the level of partisan hostility" https://t.co/Knu6G8oBPe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mcimaps: This map really depresses me. It compares raw votes cast 2016-2020. The red precincts had fewer votes cast. These are areas… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @mcimaps: Duval County, FL (Jacksonville) saw a 5.2% swing to Biden from 2016. This swing netted Democrats 25K votes compared to 2016 -… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini curious whether this changes if we ctrl for change in pop — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers 51.2* — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jeremybowers and to your original question, this is a model of biden support so the 'partisanship' of 2020 voters is the same as the actual result with all RVs at something like 51.6 biden — PolitiTweet.org