Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 3, 2022

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Wed Dec 16 15:04:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Days 1&2 were the only weekdays that the Dems won in the general, so if higher turnout keeps up on GOP-friendly days *and* if the GOP keeps outperforming its vote share, then we could revisit this interpretation by the end of early voting. But for now, better to wait and see — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Dems won day 1/2, as they did in the general, and they netted more votes out of day 1/2 than they did last time due to the higher turnout. And since the other weekdays of early voting were GOP, and 88% of these EVs were general EVs, we'd expect higher turnout to tap into more GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And I should note that there are other confounding factors to keep in mind. There are a bunch of holidays before this election that didn't exist before the general. I'm make a rare prediction and posit that early voting will be down on Christmas compared to the equiv day from Oct — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2020 Hibernated