Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Dem strength is mainly if not entirely due to a stronger Black turnout. This has always been the obvious way for Dems to improve their standing, given relatively weak Black turnout in Nov., and while there aren't any guarantees it sure seems like it's on track to materialize https://t.co/3i2jupOIn3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

With that in mind, it still seems Democrats continue to show a lot of strength. Yesterday, they continued to run well ahead of the general election, including excluding holiday equiv. days https://t.co/nGmlU4Vfjd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That first comparison--removing ipev from GE holiday-equiv. --will be represented with a dotted line, shown here. This isn't perfect: one could imagine, for ex., that someone who would have voted on day 12 will now vote on day 18, boosting later tallies. But still useful context https://t.co/yWvMEXRhBn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'll offer two ways of trying to account for this. It's not perfect, but there are many circumstances in which it still permits useful analysis. 1) Remove those same days of in-person voting (not mail) from the advanced vote in October; 2) A direct day-to-day comparison — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

As we've expected from the start, this creates a challenge for comparing where we stand now v. the general election. Day 11-13 were fairly good days for the GOP in Oct.; they run farther behind without those days, but we have no reason to think that's for a meaningful reason — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Georgia early voting took a few days off over the holidays, like most everything else, but it was back near general election levels on Monday https://t.co/Vo0L6wcVnp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

fwiw, we will be helped a little bit by a smaller absentee vote and a more Democratic in-person early vote v. the general election https://t.co/uxHEbF6iXf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Unfortunately, Uly ate two socks and a mitten upon hearing this news and had to doggy ER today instead of submitting his slate of electoral votes, so please wish him well — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's as much precedent for it as there is for counting a slate of electoral votes submitted by my dog, Ulysses S. Grant, who knows a thing or two about competing electoral slates https://t.co/d6FgEdeWuN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@carlomaigne no, this is absolutely not the option that was posited for years. https://t.co/BmKGDMWVxP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Nixon and Gore shoulda thought of this trick https://t.co/NQGT7vujse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject likely not, but i would not have tried to project the election day turnout with early voting, either way — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject the easiest solution is just to drop those same three days of e.v. from the general, regardless of how you characterize the x-axis — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject indeed, though i'm not sure that's beyond our ability to compensate for and i don't think it jeopardizes the comparison to this point — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One last note: in the replies yday, several ppl argued youth turnout was low, as it is lower than the final e.v. numbers in the general. But early voting goes from old to young, and so far it's on pace (youth % in e.v. could even beat the gen. due to lower mail (old) voting) https://t.co/rpYEi5HR0X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I've went with the daily charts in the first post, as opposed to the cumulative chart here, since it highlights that the growing Democratic lead in the cummulative data is due to a Dem advantage day after day, not just lower turnout on GOP days https://t.co/YM1NBGfXAu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting tapered off a bit in Georgia yesterday, which can't be considered any great surprise as we head into the holidays Nonetheless, Democrats continue to outrun their standing from this point of the general, thanks to a stronger Black turnout https://t.co/dR41yCDjHc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@realElduderino here's how it's gone so far https://t.co/cntrvwqbwH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@realElduderino yeah, voting steadily trends from old-->young in early voting, regardless of state etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: NEWS - Trump pardons Stone, Manafort, Charlie Kushner. Story TK. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@realElduderino it's basically identical to the general at this stage — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This has always been the biggest upside for Democrats in this election, and this is what it would look like if the Democrats were on track to realize it, even if it may fade or reverse in the voting ahead — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If this pattern continues, and it may not, I think we'll be able to safely suppose an increase in the Black share of the electorate v. the general election. To my mind and in this context, this mainly reflects strength of Black turnout more than disillusioned GOP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

At this point though, I don't think the comparison will be a problem. Since day four of early voting, Black voters have represented a much larger share of in-person early voting than it did in the general. There's no sign of that changing yet https://t.co/6ArWUInoJH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

These comparisons are going to get a bit more complicated after today. The GOP is basically going to lose two days of early voting which were pretty decent for them in the general election. So we'll just take those days out of the 2020 early voting for comparison, I think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Democrats continue to inch ahead in the Georgia advanced voting, thanks to persistently strong Black turnout, as we enter the last day of voting before the holidays https://t.co/9RqDfFWIeL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PatrickRuffini fwiw i think beverly hills has a large persian jewish population like some of the long island eggs that swung trump — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@markjstephenson gotta say that's not what our numbers have on either modeled party or race, and my interpretation of your tweets last week made me think our estimates were quite similar at the time — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PetraOreskovic and finally, since our analysis mainly just compares to the general election, bias wouldn't be a big issue unless we thought it affected one election but not the other — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PetraOreskovic the estimates for biden support are adjusted to the result by precinct x vote method, so whatever partisan nonresponse bias might exist would be ironed out. separately, the GA poll results were pretty good so the adjustments have little effect. — PolitiTweet.org