Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's worth keeping in mind that there were fewer Black votes before early voting, due to lower absentee ballot returns. By my count, the runoff total Black turnout did not *quite* match total general election Black turnout by 12/24 (though it came close). But still. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Black turnout has eclipsed general election levels on nearly every day of voting except the long Christmas holiday weekend (12/24-27 = day 11-14) https://t.co/tDBsb9SAli — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'd think this will lead to some kind of increase in early voting, as the last day of early voting usually sees a surge, but not all of the counties vote on 12/31 (including Fulton) and so we may not see a very distinct bump like we did in the general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Today's voting will be the last day when we get a reasonably straightforward comparison to the general election, as counties will begin to close out voting tomorrow (treating 12/31 and/or 1/1 as holidays) on dates which had very high turnout ahead of the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A relatively higher Black turnout continues to be the difference. The Black share of the daily electorate reached its nadir yesterday, as it did at this point in the general, but it was still 4 pts higher than at this point before the nov. election https://t.co/2CNQCp3YjX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The final Tuesday of early voting was the GOP's best day ahead of the general and that was true yesterday, as well, though they trailed the general election pace yet again https://t.co/2eP5sAUlPX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Early voting kept humming along in Georgia yesterday, matching turnout from the equivalent date ahead of the general as we head into the last days of in person voting https://t.co/SwyC4muWz1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @stphnfwlr: Read the Georgia Secretary of State’s report on the Cobb County signature audit that found one missing signature and one mis… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@perrone_ian not if you're arguing that it will meaningfully compensate for a disadvantage in turnout along white-black (130 pt gap) or dem-rep (180 pt gap) dimensions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway, I don't think this tells us much we didn't already know: we knew from the aggregate data that the electorate was more Democratic than at this point in the general. But this just helps reconcile the data on age and partisanship — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This basic story shows up in our survey data as well: among Times/Siena respondents from Sept/Oct, we have Biden up 70 to 19 among young voters who have voted already in the runoffs, v. 65 to 26 among young voters who voted by this stage of the election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But even among young white voters, you get a similar pattern. They're D 27, R 23 so far; they were D 22, R 24 at this stage of the general — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Race is a factor. The young voters who have turned out are 46% white, 34% black; they were 51% white, 30% black at this stage of the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

By party primary vote history, the 18-29 year olds who have voted so far are D 38, R 12. They were D 33, R 14 in the general at this stage. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The second reason is maybe more interesting: the young voters who have voted are just a lot more Democratic than the young voters who turned out at this stage of the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The second reason is maybe more interesting: the young voters who have voted are just a long more Democratic than the young voters who turned out at this stage of the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The second question is more interesting: are the Democrats hurt by lower youth turnout? So far the answer is no, and there are two reasons. One reason: there's not a *huge* gen. gap. Maybe young voters are D+20 while >65 are R+15. You need a big gap for modest changes to matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The first question is easy enough. As of today, youth turnout is basically keeping pace with the general, controlling for the slightly reduced opportunities to vote. This augurs for an unusually young electorate https://t.co/vv9WYotYRZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One question I keep getting about the Georgia early voting is about age: isn't the electorate older, and how much does it hurt the Democrats? So far the answer is 'not really' and 'not at all.' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@NateSilver538 @davidshor iirc she was more conservative than atilla the hun — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BrianStryker @PoliticsReid wow — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@BuffyPlusGOT @EdAsante77 i think the partisanship data makes it perfectly clear how the various demographic shifts sort out, the survey data confirms it to the extent there's any lingering ambiguity, and there's no need to really think any further — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EdAsante77 using 45 yo https://t.co/yIFpzIhXbT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@EdAsante77 it's not a very material difference https://t.co/ygdD3hb8b7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arnonmishkin yes--respondents matched to both absentee files — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Among Times/Siena poll respondents from Sept/Oct, Biden led 56-36 among voters who have now voted in the runoff. He led 51-40 among those who had voted by an equivalent point in the general election — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can also say, at this point fairly definitively, that the Ds will come out of the advanced vote with a more favorable *electorate* than the adv. vote in the general. Now the GOP can beat it back on eday, of course. But it will factor into interpreting results on Election Night — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But what I can say is that *if* the Dems were on track to increase the Black share of the electorate by a few points, and in doing so nudge Warnock over the top and Ossoff into a deadheat if preferences were unchanged, that this is what I would have guessed it might look like — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the early vote is only one element of the composition of the electorate. Perhaps the GOP will fare much better on Election Day than they did in the general. Maybe Election Day will be a larger share of the vote (perhaps we should expect that, given holidays). We don't know — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, the composition of the electorate is only one variable. Voter preference is more important than turnout. After all, Ossoff ran net-2 pts behind Biden. Maybe even more Biden vtrs will vt Rep. downballot, whether in hope of divided gvt or bc attacks on Dems — PolitiTweet.org