Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 23, 2022

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Tue Dec 29 14:11:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

And the early vote is only one element of the composition of the electorate. Perhaps the GOP will fare much better on Election Day than they did in the general. Maybe Election Day will be a larger share of the vote (perhaps we should expect that, given holidays). We don't know — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Of course, the composition of the electorate is only one variable. Voter preference is more important than turnout. After all, Ossoff ran net-2 pts behind Biden. Maybe even more Biden vtrs will vt Rep. downballot, whether in hope of divided gvt or bc attacks on Dems — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

But what I can say is that *if* the Dems were on track to increase the Black share of the electorate by a few points, and in doing so nudge Warnock over the top and Ossoff into a deadheat if preferences were unchanged, that this is what I would have guessed it might look like — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020 Hibernated