Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

My *guess* based on the precinct data and the early vote is that the Black share of the electorate will go up by around 2 points over the general election, to its highest level since 2012. But we'll have authoritative data to be sure in a few weeks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Instead, Democrats ran a net-3 points ahead of November by riding a far stronger turnout--especially among Black voters. As a result, turnout remained highest and Democratic vote share increased most in majority Black areas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It may even be an indication that Dems lost a bit of ground among affluent voters, perhaps as affluent, traditionally GOP voters tried to ensure divided government — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's been a little confusion about this graphic in my feed this AM, as it compares Biden to Ossoff, not Ossof Nov. to Jan. But Ossoff Jan. ran behind Nov. in these >80k median income precincts, as well--a clear sign that Dems didn't flip many of the Biden-Perdue target voters — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Another piece of evidence: Republicans continued to run far ahead of Biden in the relatively white, affluent, well-educated precincts on the northside of Atlanta that put Biden over the top in November, as you can see on the great map by @charlie_smart_ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One fun way to check the proposition that turnout was decisive: if you take the Ossoff/Perdue tallies in November, and use precinct data to infer what proportion of Biden/Trump voters returned (which is not a safe assumption!) you get Ossoff +.4 with no switching — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

We won't have an authoritative account for a bit, but based on what I see, there's basically no evidence of significant, net-Democratic vote switching since November. Instead, turnout held stronger in Democratic areas than GOP areas — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republican Senate candidates won the Georgia vote in November. Democrats won it on Tuesday. The reason: a superior Democratic, and especially Black, turnout https://t.co/lnaQzMCel8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: News: Biden is set to tap @GinaRaimondo for Commerce, per Dem familiar w the pick. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @WSJPolitics: D.C. police report four deaths, dozens of arrests and 14 police injuries tied to the unrest at the U.S. Capitol Wednesday.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbarro: I am eager to see the investigation of what went wrong at the Capitol. I suspect videos like this -- showing police mightily tr… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and the Clinton states hold enough electoral votes to elect Biden president, even without Pennsylvania, so the this objection does feel particularly pointless — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbouie: once again we see who the cops consider citizens worthy of respect and who they see as subjects to be controlled and pacified — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sullydish: The US Capitol Police and the CDC: well-funded and completely incapable of performing their most basic, core function. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is all just a matter of accounting at this point, but Ossoff's lead is now up to .8 points with still more predominantly Democratic ballots absentee and provisional ballots left to count. This will be far beyond the margin of a recount https://t.co/03N5dSVXiT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jaketapper: The woman shot at the US Capitol today has died, @PamelaBrownCNN reports. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Bing_Chris: What a photo by my @Reuters colleagues https://t.co/dvsR3kRv94 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbarro: It’s a really appalling failure by the Capitol Police https://t.co/yds2C0Zf91 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @BeschlossDC: This day has been foreshadowed by every hour of this Presidency. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you watched the needle, you know that basically every batch of votes published by election officials (our feed was scraping county result) went exactly as expected, without surprises or obvious irregularities (and irregularities are pretty common!) https://t.co/cgMpQDAFGe — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Somehow not the most important news of the moment, but Ossoff has won the US Senate election in Georgia, according to the AP, giving Democrats control of the Senate — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: New - an explosive device was found at the RNC and detonated safely. https://t.co/dbL5U41ZSo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Per people close to the White House, several official and unofficial aides are trying - without success - to get the preside… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @DanLamothe: BREAKING: The entire D.C. National Guard will be activated today, putting about 1,100 guardsmen on duty tonight, defense of… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Yes https://t.co/j0kwLrL1El — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jbarro: I think the likelihood that a 50-50 senate can move DC statehood has gone up https://t.co/j1cnXbxPld — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: .@MittRomney summoned me as lawmakers and press arrived at a secure location “This is what the president has caused today,… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@bruce9876 indeed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@bruce9876 https://t.co/ai8nNrylkq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Ossoff now ahead by .4 points as the last bit of DeKalb in-person early vote arrives. The absentee ballots--tens of thousands remain, perhaps ~55k by our estimates--will likely put Ossoff over the .5 threshold recount tomorrow — PolitiTweet.org