Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie you don't think there would have been *any* mitigating effect on '20 post-election madness if the results were counted at pre-20 speeds? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie i think that's largely true. i think it's also true that voting system design can exacerbate that — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie if you think that's the only material question about how to craft a voting system, then feel free to ignore the OP. but it's really not the only question — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie to be fair, it's 'orthogonal' to the question about ease of voting because... that's not the question posed by the thread! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie yeah, definitely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie in the '16 case, bernie folks were definitely not happy about california's slow count! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie i mean that there are lots of bernie supporters who immediately jumped to fraud when they lost. kerry '04 is a similar case. all that bullshit that the exit polls prove fraud, and so on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie you should check out what my feed looked like with bernie supporters in the primary! i don't think this is exclusively a GOP question here — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@kwcollins @jbouie you should check out what my feed looked like with bernie supporters in the primary — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jbouie fair, though in this framing the goal isn't so much to increase trust with voting law changes, so much as to mitigate the potential adverse consequences of low trust — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I can imagine taking this to more extreme places where there would probably way more debate: say, arguing against multiple forms of voting with varying eligibility, as it creates distinct categories of voters/ballots that can be targeted by law, election admin, courts, etc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To take an easy example from 2020: maybe it's not optimal for the vote count to last three weeks in a low trust society. There's nothing wrong with it, strictly speaking. It could have advantages. But maybe it's not worth the risk if there are bad actors and low trust — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One thing I've been thinking about lately: how different is the optimal voting system in a low-trust and high-trust society? What about in a society where partisans will play no-holds barred to win, versus one where democratic norms are strong? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@mrjking The Times, Places and Manner of holding Elections for Senators and Representatives, shall be prescribed in each State by the Legislature thereof; but the *Congress may at any time by Law make or alter such Regulations,* except as to the Places of chusing Senators. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The bill, for instance, doesn't really have much to protect against efforts like those in Georgia and elsewhere to empower the state legislature to play a larger role in election administration. The risk of election subversion, which emerged post-2020, isn't really addressed — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There's just so much going on in the bill that it's hard to sum it all up, but one core thing to remember, imo: this is not a bill that was written to protect democracy in the face of crisis. It was written to reform it, in 800 ways, and that's not quite the same thing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/h6zF0azygA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytmike: EXCLUSIVE: Matt Gaetz, Trump's close ally, is being investigated by DOJ over whether he had a sexual relationship w/17-year-ol… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @justinhendrix: 🚨🚨🚨 Big news: All New Yorkers 30 years of age and older can begin to schedule appointments and get vaccinated starting T… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Who would have won the 2020 presidential election in Georgia if the new Georgia election law was in effect prior to the 2020 election? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers the pollster ratings, i believe, reflect an estimate of a pollster's expected average error (here still the mean absolute error if you prefer) v. the industry-wide average error, given their past performance and methodology — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers the pollster ratings, i believe, measure a pollster's expected average error (here still the mean absolute error if you prefer) v. the industry-wide average error, given the races they've polled and their methodology — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@doug_rivers in nate silver's article, 'average error' = the mean absolute error, while 'bias' = 'mean error' — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @PatrickSvitek: We’ve got some Big Dan creative in #TX06: https://t.co/on2XkS3NzJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

To be clear, I’m saying “dead” here in reference to the title of the article. I don’t think polling is useless, but I am trying to distinguish whether we disagree on how bad 2020 was or whether it’s permanent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That said, history offers plenty of reason to hope that polling could leave the hospital. So if that's the main @NateSilver538 position here, then he's right that we may not disagree as deeply as I think — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One of the best hope for polling is the theory that the error/bias was mainly just about the coronavirus, for instance. Our Oct. 2019 polls were way better than Oct. 2020! The poll averages in Feb/Mar 2020 were way better too. But I think the evidence is pretty inconclusive — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

It's an open question whether polling is 'dead.' Maybe it was simply hospitalized in critical condition and no one can be sure whether it will get out https://t.co/812VjCI2NE — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @kkondik i think the case would be better if cunningham vote share lost ground. as it was, the race was like 47-42 pre-scandal (even lower in our polls) in a state where that meant a lot of GOP were left to be won — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @kkondik can't help but remember that tillis beating hagan by the exact same margin with nearly the same pre-scandal polling average — PolitiTweet.org