Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In other words, Biden's quite modest gains among white voters since '16 did about as much for his chances as decades of demographic shifts — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

If you start turning back the demographic clock, Biden quickly loses AZ/GA/NV and eventually loses PA/WI once you push the racial composition of the nation back a couple of decades. But even if you go back to the '80s, he's still winning more electoral votes than Clinton — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are two elections that were at least arguably decided by racial demographics, at least judged over a multi-decadal period: Bush '00 and Biden '20. Obviously these were already exceptionally close; most anything can decide these races — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's a somewhat surprising estimate for you, based on census, exit poll and ANES data: Trump '16, Bush '04, Bush '88/84, Reagan 80 all had enough support to prevail if they had faced an electorate as diverse as it was in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That second point--the R strength among nonwhite voters in red states like TX/FL--has a blue state corollary: D strength among nonwhite voters in blue states, which adds to the Dem E.C. challenge by padding Dem margins in IL/CA/NY/CT/NJ etc. without adding electoral votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

--Most growth is among non-Black groups of nonwhite voters, who back Ds more modestly --Rs do fairly well among those groups in the red states that Ds need to flip --Ds made big, overlooked gains among white voters in many states where diversity might have otherwise been key — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Why rising diversity isn't quite helping Democrats as much as progressives hope or conservatives fear https://t.co/yAlMbeL7YL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@gebeloffnyt am I right to assume that, if true, this implies a 2010 (and even earlier) household undercount? Don’t the inteadecadal estimates use housing growth? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @jmartNYT: After a Brown prof said families can take “kids on trips and see friends and relatives this summer, a reader sent an email to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@SeanTrende @jon_m_rob I think there’s a practitioner v academic gap on this but I could be wrong — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@jon_m_rob it kind of does so on its face — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RossRichendrfer :( another year — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should note that most people who have thought hard about this, and I'd put myself in that category, believe that the CPS overestimates the college educated share of the electorate (and nonwhite turnout, as well) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In 2016, Masscahusetts became the first state where four-year college graduates represented a majority of the presidential electorate. In 2020, it's joined by New York, Colorado and Maryland, with Vermont, New Jersey and Connecticut close behind at 48% or more — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

White voters without a four-year college degree represented 40 percent of the electorate, down from 42 percent in 2016. That's even though the turnout rate among non-college whites increased more (6.3 pts) than whites with a degree or nonwhite voters with or without a degree — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alissakmclean @bruce9876 @celeste43_ it's a supplemental question on the november CPS, the same survey that yields the monthly unemployment figures — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@alissakmclean @bruce9876 @celeste43_ it is census data https://t.co/mitEcgt5GZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

In general, the story in this data is pretty consistent with what else we've seen; no big reevaluations required. But we're getting pretty close to the end of the post-2020 data wave, and so we're getting near the time to start the take machine back up again — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's the change in the white share of the electorate, by state. State data is pretty noisy, don't interpret the details! One preemptive example: it's likely the white share of the electorate declined slightly in both PA/MI, rather than big drop in one and increase in the other https://t.co/i2kT4MkKRC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Demographic change was the main driver of the shift. The turnout rate among non-Hispanic white voters increased by 5.6 points, slightly above the 5.4 point national average Black turnout rate increased by just 3.2 points Hispanic turnout rate increased by 6.1 points — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

New census data on 2020 turnout is out: White, non-Hispanic share of the electorate drops to 71 percent from 73.3 in 2016 Black share of the electorate drops slightly, from 12.4 to 12.3 percent Hispanic share increases to 10.6 from 9.2 percent — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickrizzo @JEMesserschmidt it's not quite that clear--you're supposing the votes are for parties, not individual representatives, which is a reasonable but debatable assumption--but it certainly doesn't make it counter-majoritarian — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt @nickrizzo that's not quite true. there are proposals to award EC votes proportionally, for instance, or based on congressional district, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickrizzo @JEMesserschmidt FPTP electoral systems aren't counter-majoritarian; they're intended to reflect the will of the people, even if they don't do so as well as other systems — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt state population? house districts? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@nickrizzo @JEMesserschmidt the normal typical FPTP winner-take-all bias of all majoritarian parliaments, the House, etc., albeit on steroids because single states (the equiv of districts) command huge blocks of votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt one where the EC votes are distributed exclusively based on population, with no small state bias whatsoever — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt my point is that this small state bias is small and it is not responsible for the challenge democrats face, and a look at a hypothetical EC without *any* small state bias shows the point extremely clearly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt if you're trying to evaluate whether the EC is biased against Democrats because of its counter-majoritarian element, looking at the election result with a majoritarian EC is useful — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@JEMesserschmidt it's the comparator if you're trying to evaluate whether the source of anti-Democratic bias is because of its countermajoritarian element — PolitiTweet.org