Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 4, 2021

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Tue May 04 15:00:55 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Here's a somewhat surprising estimate for you, based on census, exit poll and ANES data: Trump '16, Bush '04, Bush '88/84, Reagan 80 all had enough support to prevail if they had faced an electorate as diverse as it was in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 4, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

That second point--the R strength among nonwhite voters in red states like TX/FL--has a blue state corollary: D strength among nonwhite voters in blue states, which adds to the Dem E.C. challenge by padding Dem margins in IL/CA/NY/CT/NJ etc. without adding electoral votes — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 4, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There are two elections that were at least arguably decided by racial demographics, at least judged over a multi-decadal period: Bush '00 and Biden '20. Obviously these were already exceptionally close; most anything can decide these races — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 4, 2021