Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Similarly, the Catalist figures show Biden making more gains among white voters than the CCES/exits. Here again, the magnitude of the swing is fairly similar to what the precinct results / live polls implied https://t.co/8pavAQJiyf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Catalist figures show Trump making nearly 3x as many gains among Latino voters as either the CCES or exit polls showed, with Trump gaining *8* points of major party vote share. That comes close to what you'd guess based on the precinct results, live phone data. https://t.co/FWyzfx2Jv8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Second observation: the Catalist figures show, by far, the most Democratic gains among white voters and largest Trump gains among Latinos of all of the various sources. And I'm inclined to believe, based on the other available evidence, that they're right about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

The Votecast figures aren't exactly like Catalist/CCES/CPS/my own estimates, but they're a lot closer and they come out on Election Day — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm not going to be comprehensive, but the exit polls continue to show--as they have for more than a decade--an erroneously diverse and well educated electorate, with countervailing (and erroneous) Dem weakness among white voters (esp with a degree) https://t.co/LhdNqD74gm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

One observation: in the fight between AP/Votecast and the exit poll, the Catalist estimates are a fairly clear vote in favor of Votecast. And when you put all the various sources together (adding CCES, CPS, live phone), the exit polls are an outlier on several indicators — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I'm a little late to the Catalist report on the demographic makeup of the electorate from earlier this week, but I wanted to note a few quick things https://t.co/bt2JuIDNAm — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @lionel_trolling: The strange thing to me about saying there isn't an ascendant left-wing so there can't be a kind of fascism in reactio… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @seungminkim: Super helpful reporting here from Team CNN: 50 of 50 Senate Ds and 219 of 219 House Ds have been vaccinated. Among GOP, 95… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ElectProject @PoliticsWolf @hill_charlotte it's so much easier to figure out partisan fairness — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf (greater than 60%* not 60 seats) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf (i could be wrong) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@PoliticsWolf my understanding was that this only applies if the legislature failed to pass a plan with >60 votes — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

This is slightly different from the usual case for multi-member districts, which usually centers on proportionality (see this). But only MMD has the potential to yield more representative party delegations, along with proportional party outcomes https://t.co/xq0Mz9PJtQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I don't want anyone to take this case too far: blue state GOP primary electorates can still be Trumpy, and I don't think many would easily sustain outright anti-Trump Republicans right now, like a Cheney or something But this is where multi-member districts have potential — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

There is also a geographic mismatch between whether GOP can win in primary and general elections. Many blue states have relatively moderate GOP primary electorates, but they're not going to win the general (a similar story plays out for red state Ds) https://t.co/JFHcdumsoc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @maggieNYT: Sounds just like how Trump talks — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @cwarshaw (i am also of the view, btw, that many of the polls weighting on recalled vote also had far too few new voters, and that to the extent the 'new voters' were usually dem (and probably more dem than IRL) that this may be a case where two wrongs made a right) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @cwarshaw (which is to say that nearly all of our polls had a trump-biased recalled vote) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @cwarshaw depends on how you do it, of course, but we would have been worse — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @Neil_Irwin: This is a good frame. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @dhopkins1776: Here's a new #polisciresearch working paper & a 🧵. We all know about 1/6 and the threat to American democracy that cryst… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @otis_reid: Good article about disbelief being at the root of belief in conspiracy theories from @TimHarford — did not know this bit bef… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @gebeloffnyt: 1) New York losing a House seat by 89 people — that’s one exciting Census story. But for demographers, the bigger story wa… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@CREID2852 point taken, but given that obama won indiana, won wisconsin by 16 and so on back in 2008, i think it's very likely that obama had significant strengths of his own — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(in general, Obama's ability to mobilize Black voters was way more useful for Democrats than demographic change. Black voters are concentrated in many key states and far more Democratic) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

He would win with Obama 08/12 black turnout, but he would not win with even 2020 demographics (and his actual turnout rate among black v white voters) https://t.co/u6s43K4192 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(That's because Obama's two big strengths were high black turnout and strength among white northerners, especially in the classic Midwestern battleground states where there's been little demographic change) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I should also note that Obama '12--which is often attributed to racial demographic change--can hold all the way back into the 1980s — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ArmandoNDK they would not! — PolitiTweet.org