Nate Cohn

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Republican candidates for House won the most votes in 29 states worth 290 electoral votes, accounting for uncontested races, even as Democrats won the House and carried the national House vote by about 2 points by the same measure — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@janecoaston but how did mcclellan get an army to stalingrad? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @nytimes: Ford unveiled the electric version of its F-150 pickup, the core of the best-selling vehicle line in the U.S., at a price thou… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @sahilkapur: .⁦@RepTimRyan⁩ is pissed https://t.co/3iNAhHHMjG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@arthurhimmel soup or salad, there's a baguette too — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Were you taught some version of 'America is [or may be] a salad bowl,' or something similar that complicates the assimilationist, monocultural 'melting pot' story (inspired by many of the replies) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Were you taught some version of 'America is a melting pot' in public schools? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@rp_griffin @RyanDEnos @ltthompso @leedrutman given that yaxis, i'm not sure you can separate those two things so clearly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@ltthompso @RyanDEnos @leedrutman i don't know for sure, but my guess is that if you took the questionnaire (which i bet could be arranged!) you might disagree as much with the computation of the scale, based on your answers, as you disagreed with the experts on the answers — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @ltthompso @leedrutman looking further through the documentation, the design is better than the summary (or my summation of the summary) made it sound--many of the questions are relatively factual, to the extent they can be. someone who disagreed could probably find a methodological basis for doing so — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @ltthompso @leedrutman certainly, but i do think it's a case where one can disagree with the findings--or if you prefer, the expert ratings--without resorting to a methodological indictment of the study, unless the experts themselves offered some rigorous basis for their ratings — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@RyanDEnos @ltthompso @leedrutman isn't the methodology just asking a few experts--at least four per party--to rate a political party? or did i miss something more sophisticated — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Though I will note that the hypothetical (and unlikely) enactment of HR1 would lead to automatic and same day registration, which is the sort of thing that might make a marginal but discernible difference in Texas, depending on some reasonable but unproven assumptions — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

I know no one wants to hear this, but ... the proposed voting changes will not figure into this https://t.co/dwU6ngI0Qy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

(or at least won't necessarily continue; the guy could be renominated after all!) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, how much of the recent Dem gains in Texas metros reflect secular trends, likely migration-driven, that will keep rolling forward, or an abrupt Trump-driven realignment in vote choice, which won't continue? I've never seen a serious analysis on this, fwiw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Is there any GOP dead-cat bounce in affluent, well-educated, conservative suburbs? They're not going back to pre-Trump levels, of course. But what about merely Trump 2016? Here's there's a lot more GOP upside in Texas than Florida — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Can Biden bounce back among Latinos? I think there are a lot of reasons for Ds to hope so Merely holding 2016 support among Latino voters would have meant a Biden+2 victory in Florida and Trump+1 in Texas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

A great question, with at least three big moving pieces to my mind--particularly on the TX side of the equation: https://t.co/ViJKhcgYbz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @AlecMacGillis: Philadelphia spent ~$500K preparing its bid for Amazon HQ2. It made the group of half-dozen finalists. But @bradstone re… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Every Clinton '16 state has vaccinated at least half of its population, except Nevada; every Trump '16 state has vaccinated less than half, except Pennsylvania https://t.co/iZAJepdUhs https://t.co/wKSBebzahC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Every Clinton '16 state has vaccinated at least half of its population, except Nevada; every Trump '16 state has vaccinated less than half, except Pennsylvania https://t.co/aTbyAF6lmd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @ByMikeBaker: The federal government started paying people $1,000 to adopt wild mustangs. But records show some of the recipients are ta… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

https://t.co/Ucj2RG0Gh7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

RT @janecoaston: The motto of the Harlem Hellfighters: “Don’t tread on me, God damn, Let’s go” — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL @JMilesColeman the ultra savvy people know you can't have that conversation with everyone — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@MappingFL @JMilesColeman ultra savvy people think a district might not be so good if randos--ie the public--think it's insane — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway this brings closer to getting to whatever our 'best' answer about 2020 might be in the end. There are still some important things to nail down--magnitude of white educational polarization and shifts in turnout, in particular. More later — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Variance in the composition of the electorate is another factor: if you have more Dem-friendly groups (like more well-educated white or nonwhite voters) then estimates for each group will need to be more Republican in order for everything to add up to the result — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Third, there are some pretty big differences--across all the estimates--on the attitudes of white voters by education and Latinos. Honestly, I think a lot of this is in part because the polls were bad this cycle, and the varying techniques that get used to make up for it — PolitiTweet.org