Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked May 14, 2021

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Fri May 14 18:17:27 +0000 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Variance in the composition of the electorate is another factor: if you have more Dem-friendly groups (like more well-educated white or nonwhite voters) then estimates for each group will need to be more Republican in order for everything to add up to the result — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 14, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Third, there are some pretty big differences--across all the estimates--on the attitudes of white voters by education and Latinos. Honestly, I think a lot of this is in part because the polls were bad this cycle, and the varying techniques that get used to make up for it — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 14, 2021

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

Anyway this brings closer to getting to whatever our 'best' answer about 2020 might be in the end. There are still some important things to nail down--magnitude of white educational polarization and shifts in turnout, in particular. More later — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 14, 2021