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David Frum @davidfrum
Under Outcome 3b, most soldiers just quit the fight, but a few commanders convert their army units into private militias. Those few set up as local warlords. State authority crumples. A new "time of troubles" follows. Let's all hope for Outcome 2. But let's be ready for 3b. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Under Outcome 3b, most soldiers just quit the fight, but few commanders convert their army units into private militias. Those few set up as local warlords. State authority crumples. A new "time of troubles" follows. Let's all hope for Outcome 2. But let's be ready for 3b. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Outcome 3a: Respond quickly and decisively to the army's morale crisis, recall troops home to retain a force that can maintain power domestically - as the Soviets attempted to do from Afghanistan, 1989. Or Outcome 3b: Respond too little, too late to the morale crisis — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Outcome 3a: Respond quickly and decisively to the army's morale crisis, recall troops home to retain a force that can maintain power domestically - as the Soviets attempted to do from Afghanistan, 1989. Or Outcome 3a: Respond too little, too late to the morale crisis — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
How that morale crisis plays out I cannot predict: individual or group desertions? murder of officers? But at some point, maybe soon, Putin will face a choice: lose his war or lose his army. Which points to one of two sub-outcomes within Outcome 3: — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
I can't evaluate them, but we've all seen reports of steeply rising Russian battlefield casualties in recent weeks, reports of soldiers' pay month in arrears. If these reports are true, and others like them are true, the army faces an imminent morale crisis. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Outcome 2 is the most benign for Russia, but would be the most personally humiliating for Putin. So long as he survives in power, it seems far-fetched, but who knows. Let's hope. More plausible, however, is Outcome 3: the Russian army begins to crack up in the field. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Outcome 2 is the most benign for Russia, but would be the most personally humiliating for Putin. So long as he survives in power, it seems far-fetched, but who knows. Let's hope. More plausible, however, is Option 3: — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Outcome 2: Negotiate now Russia's best available deal. A deal today would probably include: surrender of most occupied Ukraine territory; acceptance of Ukraine EU candidacy, plus Ukraine/NATO partnership - but would likely offer relief from sanctions and escape from reparations — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
...but outcome 1 also freezes in place western economic sanctions - and dooms any hope of recovering EU markets for Russian gas. Option 1 spells permanent economic isolation and decline. Plus, seeking option 1 risks outright battlefield defeat of the Russian army by Ukraine. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
...but outcome 1 also freezes in place the western economic sanctions - and dooms any hope of recovering European markets for Russian gas. It spells permanent economic isolation and hardship - a future as an Arctic Iran. To escape sanctions, there's option 2: — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Three scenarios for Russia: 1) They fight the war to a stalemate, holding Crimea and bits of eastern Ukraine, freezing the conflict (like others on Russia's borders) into de facto armistice but no formal peace. This outcome probably most gratifying to Putin's vanity, but ... — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Meanwhile, inside US, it seems that a domestic political effect of the Biden visit to Ukraine is to weld anti-Biden partisans even more tightly to their pro-Putin delusions. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Russia could negotiate for itself a better peace today than it will get in three months time. But getting peace would require Russian leaders to acknowledge to themselves that they have lost their war - and that their last hope is to prevent defeat from collapsing into debacle — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @POTUS: When Putin launched his invasion nearly one year ago, he thought Ukraine was weak and the West was divided. He thought he could… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @UaNews_online: Japan To Give Ukraine $5.5 Billion, Host Online G7 Summit With Zelenskiy https://t.co/mrJROjaot5 — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @business: “I’m honestly freaking out.” Bankrupt crypto lenders are hitting investors with tax bills for their frozen funds https://t.co… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @HerbieZiskend46: “Jamming his finger for emphasis on his podium flanked by U.S. and Ukrainian flags, he continued: ‘And Ukraine stands.… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @PatriciaTreble: The King visits Ukrainian troops training in the UK at the same time as President Biden visits Kiev — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @pdrobertson: “Canadian politicians, officials and business executives are the prime targets of Chinese government espionage that employ… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @KyivPost: 🇬🇧 The King of #GreatBritain, Charles III, visited Ukrainian military personnel undergoing training in Wiltshire. 📹: @RoyalR… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @JackDetsch: New details on Biden's trip to Kyiv on a White House call that just wrapped. U.S. notified the Russian government that Pr… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @Angry_Staffer: Nothing to see here, just Biden and Zelenskyy strolling through Kyiv while air raid sirens sound. Trump would have nee… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @DarthPutinKGB: I've provided more tanks to Ukraine than anyone yet I don't get an invite to Kiev. Biased liberals. — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
RT @olgatokariuk: The significance of @POTUS visit to Kyiv today is huge. The last time the US presidents visited Ukraine was in 2008. Bide… — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Nor am I reassured by the quality of the personal advice it offers https://t.co/Oo08jWUzuJ — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
For the youngs https://t.co/gFiDEj6PuD — PolitiTweet.org
Wrong Reel @WrongReel
WR445 - For our latest episode with filmmaker @billteck (@OneDaySinceYest), we’ve taken our inspiration from Bill M… https://t.co/fAJ1cIduHB
David Frum @davidfrum
For the youngs https://t.co/gFiDEj6PuD — PolitiTweet.org
Wrong Reel @WrongReel
WR445 - For our latest episode with filmmaker @billteck (@OneDaySinceYest), we’ve taken our inspiration from Bill M… https://t.co/fAJ1cIduHB
David Frum @davidfrum
And this is just sad desperate filibustering. Bill Murray hangs his head. https://t.co/ddcsXj7uYt — PolitiTweet.org
David Frum @davidfrum
Nor is AI going to have much chance against Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination https://t.co/K3Fu7Hy1Gz — PolitiTweet.org
