David Frum

@davidfrum ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 24, 2023

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Mon Feb 20 14:46:00 +0000 2023

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David Frum @davidfrum

I can't evaluate them, but we've all seen reports of steeply rising Russian battlefield casualties in recent weeks, reports of soldiers' pay month in arrears. If these reports are true, and others like them are true, the army faces an imminent morale crisis. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 20, 2023

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David Frum @davidfrum

Outcome 2 is the most benign for Russia, but would be the most personally humiliating for Putin. So long as he survives in power, it seems far-fetched, but who knows. Let's hope. More plausible, however, is Outcome 3: the Russian army begins to crack up in the field. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 20, 2023

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David Frum @davidfrum

How that morale crisis plays out I cannot predict: individual or group desertions? murder of officers? But at some point, maybe soon, Putin will face a choice: lose his war or lose his army. Which points to one of two sub-outcomes within Outcome 3: — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 20, 2023