Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Why and how did the filibuster emerge?" is not necessarily a simple question, but I don't think it's right to center it in the idea of "decorum". https://t.co/Klu1DPRPFY https://t.co/gnMpTOAECs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @smkeyes Anecdotal but upgrade lists have been very long when I've flown lately. Semi-wild guess that more leisure travelers are paying for business class because i) they want to have more space from other passengers and/or ii) flying is otherwise especially miserable during a pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Then Obama defeats John Edwards for the Democratic nomination and wins the general election in 2008 and re-election in 2012. Lacking obvious alternatives, VP Biden runs in 2016 and very narrowly defeats Donald Trump. But Trump wins a rematch in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Kevmath Appreciated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Kevmath Does that mean you do get blinded off at events >= $1K or is that still tbd? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: .@NateSilver538 breaks down the probability of Democrats maintaining control of the governor’s mansion in Virginia. https:… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion You can still revert to chronological, no? Though I agree that it should really be the default and Twitter seems to want to nudge folks in the other direction. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I think Twitter is still pretty good for following breaking news events and increasingly pretty bad for most other purposes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Kevmath What time is registration for this event liable to close today? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not a "choice" so much as an analytical consideration and the Dems are probably right to think the medium term is pretty bleak for passing major progressive legislation, largely because of the structural disadvantages they face in the Senate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@umichvoter It's probably OKC or something but Miami is the biggest outlier in the sense of being the most Republican relative to what a demographic model would predict. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

About to head back to Vegas to work on my book and play in a few* WSOP and other poker tournaments. Hope to see some of you there! But also looking forward to this (virtual) panel on Saturday with @RalstonReports and @TheNVIndy. * Or perhaps more than a few. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Spitting credit in states that have one senator from each party, Democrats have senators representing 56% of the population, and the GOP 44%. Just an incredibly different world if Senate control is 56-44 instead of 50-50. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess it's boring to talk about this, but people tend to underrate Dems' degree of difficulty. When the Senate conveys such a large advantage to rural voters and one party does much better with those voters, the other party is going to have trouble having a functional majority. https://t.co/3t8eN3naxZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think Sinema is pretty irrational—she's greatly increased her chance of losing a primary challenge and I don't know that she's helped her general election chances one bit—but one problem with a 50:50 "majority" is that one irrational actor can foil all your plans. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @RalstonReports: IndyFest this weekend will get national attention because of the first independent polling in gov/Senate. But much mor… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @daveweigel: @NateSilver538 https://t.co/5sYuDdV7Bc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I still remember four years ago when Northam was ahead in polls but the CW was that Virginia was a tossup and then Northam won by like 9 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@berkey11 Yeah and I have sympathy for dealers who already have a lot to deal with. But this seems like it's fairly high ROI from a player experience standpoint. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@berkey11 Do rec players not like the shot clock? Never quite understood why they aren't more universal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I liked the Pete Wells review too but it tells you a lot about this platform that a restaurant with a $335 vegan tasting menu is a trending topic. https://t.co/BrEpt6oNmQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende I'd also note that what we're observing isn't really kids in school vs kids sheltering in place and remote learning. It's kids in school relative to their schedule of summer activities and however much transmission that had been causing before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Yeah. Or at the very least it puts some bounds on things. You can't look at data like this and conclude schools have no role in transmission. But with each week that goes by you can start to rule out some worst-case scenarios. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it was a crazy concern either, BTW. Kids are the largest group of unvaccinated people and the evidence on how well kids transmit under Delta is sort of all over the place. But should we be updating our priors? Yes, I think, at least a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure you're saying something. You might not be saying as much as if we had a time machine and could actually run counterfactual experiments. But people were worried about a surge caused by school reopenings, large enough to drown out other trends, and that hasn't happened. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the Northeast, the numbers are relatively flat, but that's partly because of a (probably school-related) increase in testing. In New Jersey, for instance, cases are down 8% over the past two weeks, but tests are up 38%. Meanwhile, NYC's positive test rate continues to decline. https://t.co/ml3LbWP1uG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It doesn't preclude a winter surge later. But schools have been open long enough that it's looking somewhat unlikely we'll have a national COVID surge caused by school re-openings. Cases are still falling in most of the country. https://t.co/i8ElZQJZ5p https://t.co/wunbuvY1FN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved RAPTOR liked him until last year. I think there's a weird thing where people tend to ignore aging in players whose value is "controversial". https://t.co/pmUr0Dl8YV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nobody's track record is perfect but the country is pretty lucky to have Dr. Walensky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred @ptbrennan11 The other one I don't get is when people say "well, it might only provide high protection against infection/transmission for a few months". Even if that were true⁠—and it may not be⁠—curbing a winter Delta wave while we're still trying more folks vaccinated could be worthwhile. — PolitiTweet.org