Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 14, 2021

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Tue Sep 28 14:06:26 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it was a crazy concern either, BTW. Kids are the largest group of unvaccinated people and the evidence on how well kids transmit under Delta is sort of all over the place. But should we be updating our priors? Yes, I think, at least a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure you're saying something. You might not be saying as much as if we had a time machine and could actually run counterfactual experiments. But people were worried about a surge caused by school reopenings, large enough to drown out other trends, and that hasn't happened. — PolitiTweet.org

Yeah, but when evaluating policies what really matters is where the numbers are *relative to the counterfactual*.… https://t.co/TnJ6RT61EY

Posted Sept. 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende Yeah. Or at the very least it puts some bounds on things. You can't look at data like this and conclude schools have no role in transmission. But with each week that goes by you can start to rule out some worst-case scenarios. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2021