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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 14, 2021

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Tue Sep 28 14:04:00 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sure you're saying something. You might not be saying as much as if we had a time machine and could actually run counterfactual experiments. But people were worried about a surge caused by school reopenings, large enough to drown out other trends, and that hasn't happened. — PolitiTweet.org

Justin Wolfers @JustinWolfers

Yeah, but when evaluating policies what really matters is where the numbers are *relative to the counterfactual*.… https://t.co/TnJ6RT61EY

Posted Sept. 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the Northeast, the numbers are relatively flat, but that's partly because of a (probably school-related) increase in testing. In New Jersey, for instance, cases are down 8% over the past two weeks, but tests are up 38%. Meanwhile, NYC's positive test rate continues to decline. https://t.co/ml3LbWP1uG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it was a crazy concern either, BTW. Kids are the largest group of unvaccinated people and the evidence on how well kids transmit under Delta is sort of all over the place. But should we be updating our priors? Yes, I think, at least a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 28, 2021