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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @smotus Crypto Bros are the new Soccer Moms. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan It's hard to know. In my mental model I tend to weight the (largely very encouraging) South Africa data very heavily, just because I think having somewhere that's ~3 weeks ahead of everywhere else tends to outweigh things that might make SA different. But that might be wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan It's the latter factor that's the big unknown IMO. If the period of very rapid case growth only lasts for ~3 weeks instead of for ~2 months, then places like NYC that weren't under a lot of Delta pressure should be OK. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan Hospitalizations are a pretty small fraction of what they were in spring 2020 in NYC (our winter wave last year was pretty modest) and there is some evidence that case growth is leveling off, though hard to know how much of that reflects limited testing capacity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan Hospitalization growth is considerably slower than lagged case growth in NYC, and ICU rates growing slower still. I think this data is pretty consistent with what we'd expect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Shouldn't it be the CDC's job to investigate questions like these instead of shrugging their shoulders 2 years into the pandemic? What the heck are we doing here? https://t.co/l9RKO5cRlc https://t.co/bEU5dL6zxS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can be for something or you can be against something, but if the main proposition you offer is to be anti-anti something, your potential is capped and nobody is going to remember you beyond your immediate circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @ezraklein @mattyglesias My hot take is that the US roughly did persue a flatten-the-curve strategy as the term was originally intended. (There's some revisionist history on what the term meant.) But we never really admitted it to ourselves and so wound up with a sloppy and inefficient version. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Delta CEO asked for a 5-day quarantine *for vaccinated people* with an "appropriate testing protocol". FWIW, the CDC did something much more liberal: a 5-day quarantine for everybody (vaccinated or not) so long as symptoms were absent or resolving. And *no* testing protocol. — PolitiTweet.org

Tori Bedford @Tori_Bedford

Delta CEO asks CDC to shorten the recommended COVID quarantine: "the 10-day isolation for those who are fully vacci… https://t.co/O4s6ea0qpR

Posted Dec. 28, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: @NateSilver538 Rapid testing enables us to find the right balance between preventing cases and getting back to normal. Th… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021 Retweet
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It just seems like this policy exists on a wildly different point on the risk-aversion spectrum from the rest of current CDC guidance, e.g. how they recommend that even vaccinated children wear masks in school all day. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I dunno about this without a testing requirement? When I had a breakthrough a while ago I'd have met the CDC's criteria to exit quarantine after 5 days (no fever, symptoms resolving). But just for kicks, I took a self-test after ~6 days and was still +. https://t.co/mE75cWbtQf https://t.co/f2oQ4JXTkk — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If they revised last week's figure from 73% to 22% (!!!!!!! Seriously WTF?!?!?) I think we have to assume the CDC's method is crap and should be ignored going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Jason Gallagher @JGPharmD

CDC estimates of circulating variants including week of 12/25. Notably week of 12/18 estimate of Omicron revised fr… https://t.co/bG8zldQP40

Posted Dec. 28, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @AlecMacGillis I'd always thought of myself as slightly more introverted than extroverted but pandemic Twitter made me feel like the biggest party animal on earth. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DrewSav: 93% have an opinion on Jerome Powell? come on, this just defies credibility. https://t.co/90ZsKeVUNd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 27, 2021 Retweet
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, it wouldn't surprise me if at least half of US COVID testing is occurring at home, and perhaps higher. Though, this fraction probably varies a lot based on geographic and demographic characteristics. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 27, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of ambiguities here. Buying a rapid test and storing it in your cupboard isn't the same as *using* a rapid test. Also, institutional settings sometimes also use rapid tests like BinaxNow. So rapid tests are not equivalent to at-home tests. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 27, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

From Abbott financials, I would gather that ~130 million BinaxNow rapid tests were sold in the US in 3Q and that these were slightly more than half the market for rapid tests. So maybe that's 250m tests sold, which equals 0.2-0.3 per American per 30 days. https://t.co/96By7A7f3t — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 27, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By comparison, the average American is taking something like 0.1-0.2 out-of-home tests per 30 days. So, yeah, my followers like getting tested. But we don't have a firm grip on how many *at-home* tests Americans are taking, which are largely going unrecorded. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 27, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, these results suggest that people who responded to this poll are taking something like 1.2 at-home COVID tests per 30 days, and 0.7 out-of-home COVID tests per 30 days. Not a representative group, but still interesting that at-home tests are the predominant method! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This will not be a representative sample but still curious about it. For American followers only: in the past 30 d… https://t.co/80of3vJWVc

Posted Dec. 27, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@felixsalmon @danielradosh Sure, and I don't really blame readers/viewers for what they're interested in. But if journalists are critiquing the media's news judgment, they could exercise a little more judgment themselves about how immaterial some of these stories are. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@danielradosh I'm mostly referring to people on here who *are* in the media. And I don't think there's a tradeoff really between serious news and entertainment coverage. People have a finite amount of attention for serious news. So best not to waste "serious news" bandwidth on dumb crap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's too many people on here who both argue that the media needs to devote more bandwidth to covering attacks on democracy (a point with which I largely agree) and who waste bandwidth on the stupidest possible partisan controversies like the "Let's Go Brandon" guy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For example, if Electoral College allocations had been based on 2021 rather than 2020 populations, Democrats would have wound up with about 1 fewer electoral vote on the 2024 map. One vote doesn't have that big an impact, but the trends continue this could become more important. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If nothing else, since the Electoral College and congressional allocations for the decade were locked in based on 2020, migration from blue states to red states will tend to slightly reduce Republicans' advantage in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Michael Brendan Dougherty @michaelbd

Losing rural and suburban voters in NY and California and moving them to exurban Florida and Arizona may not be the… https://t.co/3Egk2Xt8Ph

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's try this for a comparison. US followers only, please. In the past 30 days, how many COVID tests have you taken that were administered by someone else *outside* your home? (e.g. at a doctor's office, clinic or workplace.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This will not be a representative sample but still curious about it. For American followers only: in the past 30 days, how many at-home COVID tests have you taken? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 26, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, I'm pretty sure there's more Omicron in NYC than other places. (Though probably less Delta!) I think the differences are probably exaggerated by greater testing and better sequencing in NYC, but by how much is hard to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 24, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JasonKander Yeah, the low rate of indoor masking in KC has surprised me. Not meant in a judgmental way (I love KC). But, since KC is fairly blue, it makes me wonder if Americans are being less careful in practice than polls (showing e.g. slim majorities supporting mask mandates) would imply. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 24, 2021
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. I don't know I'd say that NYC is overreacting? Maybe I'd say the rest of the country is underreacting? But in any case, the reaction is very different. 2. NYCers are much more inclined to get tested and I suspect there's lots of undetected Omicron elsewhere in the country. — PolitiTweet.org

Josh Marshall @joshtpm

@NateSilver538 If we're talking about NYC's overreaction, I was looking at some numbers. The nationwide case rate h… https://t.co/rcEi68WOYs

Posted Dec. 24, 2021