Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart Mostly applies to Manhattan south of 14th Street, though? And hasn't that always been cool? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MattGarrahan: Remarkable interview from the manager of Aldershot Town https://t.co/KB2H3ugldX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan While Trump might be an underdog in that scenario, he might be more capable of exploiting it than a generic Republican. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan That's what I tend to think too, but Trump has higher variance and so there's the flipside of the scenario I described earlier, i.e. things are going objectively pretty well but Biden is a gaffe machine and Ds are on the wrong side of a lot of culture war issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan Yeah, I don't know who's the better candidate (between DeSantis and Trump) in the world where things are going semi-OK with COVID and the economy and everything. But in the world where everything is going to hell, Trump gives Ds a chance (30%???) they might not have otherwise. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan The message would presumably be all about Trump, which gives Democrats more options than they'd have against another candidate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron You'll also get shorter lags if the testing pipeline is more backed up, which it was until recently in NYC. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss People in New Manhattan will consider (original) Manhattan to be "Upstate". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My latest: Expand Manhattan But Put Half Of It In New Jersey https://t.co/GoqNyhGRsU https://t.co/T1fFMS6vsF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The incredibly rapid rise of the number of NBA players in COVID protocols being followed by an equally rapid decline. https://t.co/bHQ6brLG6p https://t.co/3oySVufhnP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You could make a case that Sinema is in such deep trouble in the primary that Democrats no longer have as much leverage over her, because at this point she's still going to be in deep trouble even if she relents. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1 doesn't negate 2 and 3, but 2 and 3 also don't negate 1, and 1 is really important. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Omicron IS milder and that's EXTREMELY good news. 2. It could still cause big problems for hospitals and possibly a lot of excess deaths. 3. How you should act as an individual varies, and depends on vaccination status, age, risk-tolerance, etc. But def get vaxxed/boosted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah this looks pretty cool and informative! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Craig_A_Spencer I guess if I'm being more precise, I'd say I tend not to trust journalistic narratives based on anecdotal evidence. Sometimes reporters will pick up important dimensions that aren't apparent in the data. But there can also be a lot of motivated reasoning or leaps of logic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm saying: * I don't think there are a lot of things that Manchin/Sinema would agree to *without* the filibuster that Dems aren't doing now. They'd find some other reason to oppose. * I don't think McConnell will be reluctant to further/completely erode the filibuster in 2023. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've never been sure which data sources to trust on the question of hospital capacity, and in some ways—such as because of the increase in incidental COVID hospitalizations under Omicron—the situation is more confusing than ever. But TBH I trust anecdotal evidence even less. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And even the Manchin exception, I'm not sure about. Absent the filibuster, would he really support voting rights or other more ambitious parts of the D agenda? I tend to think he'd say e.g. "We can't undertake legislation like this on a purely partisan basis" and still oppose. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My hot take is that the filibuster mostly doesn't exist anymore, in the sense that it's been so weakened as a norm that going forward, it won't significantly constrain action that parties would strongly want to take anyway. Maybe Manchin on voting rights is an exception. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing about Omicron is that it sorta makes everyone's arguments stronger. "Flatten the curve" crew can note it will likely pass thru quickly so NPIs won't last as long. Team "let 'er rip" can point toward lower severity and that it may be too contagious to control via NPIs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart Well, it's kind of a shit metric. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @hpanic7342 Like, I'm pretty strongly anti-lockdown at this point but if a 6-week lockdown could literally end the coronavirus? Sold. I just don't think it would work and I don't trust that it would last only 6 weeks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @hpanic7342 Yeah that was a weird and almost trollish question and the upshot I took is that voters don't buy that "temporary" measures will in fact be temporary. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why are Democratic politicians acting like school closures are a huge political liability? Well, because they are. Shifting schools to remote learning is opposed 30-66 in the latest Suffolk/USA Today poll. Even a majority of Democrats (52%) oppose. https://t.co/ZxrzBBWkzg https://t.co/GzjTIhLgIj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of the issue is "elections reform" debates are pretty wonky, and also relatively new to the conversation, and so not the sorts of things that lend themselves to grass-roots excitement—in contrast to voting rights, which is more visceral and longstanding focus for Dem groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But one thing I really don't get is why the White House, and an increasing number of liberal commentators, seem to posit some trade-off between *voting rights* and *elections reform*, i.e. that if you do the latter, you won't get the former. https://t.co/CChpi6doyV https://t.co/WlORTBUf8Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The generous read, I guess, is that everybody knows voting rights legislation is unlikely to pass, so they're all pantomiming and setting up someone else to take the blame. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@marceelias You have a record in court and not as a political strategist. And I'm very much *in favor* of straying outside of one's lane. But I've seen a lot of smart people make bad arguments when it brings them social media approval. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not the only or the *most* important problem in politics these days, but the endorphin rush of getting Twitter likes can lead people into some fairly incoherent and counterproductive strategies. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Personally I think it would be dumb in a 13-dimensional-chess, way-overthinking-it way not to take an opportunity to reform the Electoral Count Act, especially given that Manchin/Sinema/etc. are pretty unlikely to agree to the broader legislation that liberal D's would prefer. — PolitiTweet.org