Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 16, 2022

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Sat Jan 15 04:23:53 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan That's what I tend to think too, but Trump has higher variance and so there's the flipside of the scenario I described earlier, i.e. things are going objectively pretty well but Biden is a gaffe machine and Ds are on the wrong side of a lot of culture war issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 15, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan Yeah, I don't know who's the better candidate (between DeSantis and Trump) in the world where things are going semi-OK with COVID and the economy and everything. But in the world where everything is going to hell, Trump gives Ds a chance (30%???) they might not have otherwise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 15, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan While Trump might be an underdog in that scenario, he might be more capable of exploiting it than a generic Republican. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 15, 2022