Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro At least they are pretty explicit about it in this particular essay! (That they think of the pandemic as a lost opportunity to push society toward a more left-wing/socialist direction.) https://t.co/uKNnYgUUs0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade I still find it interesting that closures had much bigger effects on urban/community amenities that are usually coded as blue (public schools, restaurants/bars, theater/museums/sports, knock-off effects on public transit) but that liberals were generally more pro-closure. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren So, this is a really complicated question that you could answer in about 5 different ways! (see below) https://t.co/KkbiIDcZLo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @JenniferNuzzo I don't blame anyone too much for spring 2020 decisions. And you'd have to look up what was known at the time about e.g. severity in children. But I think it was probably a bad decision in places where COVID containment was implausible, e.g. the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren It's still part-and-parcel of cost-benefit analysis, though! "Bad things happen when you call with a mediocre hand" is often an excellent poker heuristic, but it's a good heuristic because it's empirically true that such calls lose money on average... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sdbaral I actually think the PP makes a decent argument *against* drastic interventions like closures, i.e. "In-person interactions have long been the basis of civil society; although there are now many adequate virtual substitutes, we should be cautious about abruptly removing them". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Generously interpreted, the "precautionary principle" might mean "make an effort to account for uncertain hazards, even if they're hard to quantify". OK! But in this case (school closures) there are hard-to-quantify hazards *whatever* you decide. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "precautionary principle" is a dubious heuristic to begin with, but it's flat-out dumb if you think it ought to override cost-benefit analysis instead of being *part* of cost-benefit analysis. https://t.co/vYV7hTvIV8 https://t.co/8nnbVRpHVJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah even for people who are constitutionally incapable of accepting the liberal (or in this case really bipartisan) consensus on Ukraine it's like "Really? That's the best you got?". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@briankoppelman LOL soon, looking forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@briankoppelman I'm talking to a bunch of people for my book now and spending a *lot* more time preparing for interviews than I did for my 1st book and convinced it's very high ROI. If you're just asking questions you could have learned thru the research process you're wasting everyone's time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's also evidence that Dems on Twitter are considerably more left-wing than other Ds. (Of course, this is pretty obvious, but some people are shockingly bad at figuring out how the views that prevail in their spaces match up to the county's overall.) https://t.co/GbfdUMcxaL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

File this under "public health people are much more risk-averse than the general public". https://t.co/dekjWuLlPz https://t.co/f4zcrNDUQx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you comment on here about politics regularly, I probably already know your position on free speech/cancel culture/etc. If there's some new edge case that comes up, OK cool, debate that! But you don't have to repeat the same argument every time a new op-ed comes out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Blogging the tourney today (from Vegas of all places) with the 538 crew! https://t.co/6lsorea4ik — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Apparently yes but also worth keeping in mind that there are a lot of mid-level bureaucrats (e.g. the vice chairperson for some tennis federation or whatever) who are literally the dumbest people on the planet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've reached the point where takedowns don't even bother to offer original or substantive criticism but are just 1500 words of vibing "What's the deal with Person X?! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯" about a subject who can be presumed to be unpopular with the publication's audience. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In Russia, the sanctions impose you! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggiekb1: Talkin' with @galendruke, @SantulN, and @NateSilver538 about politics, petroleum, and the high price of pizza. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@galendruke Anecdotally the salad chains are usually busier earlier in the week, everyone's on their best behavior on Monday but by Thursday people are worn down and like "fuck Sweetgreen I'm having a burger". Or maybe I'm just projecting here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This has to be among the top 10 "To be sure..." paragraphs in New York Times history (an extremely competitive list). https://t.co/WrpxKBU1fA https://t.co/F4ZmMEHSbX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten I must once again remind you that your anti-DST stance is a huge betrayal to your fellow night owls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tbonier YouGov is using a 5-point scale so this is based on a Likert score. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is the myth that won't die. Voters viewed Trump as more moderate than Clinton in 2016. They saw him as much more conservative by 2020 and he performed worse despite having the incumbency advantage. https://t.co/8XXhMdZbiu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Yeah, I don't know. Our hospitalizations were considerably higher but not sure if that reflects less immunity or fewer NPIs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi We had a much bigger Omicron wave though and (relatedly) were much less locked down, so there are lots of important differences. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I mean yeah it's complicated. Depends on how we're defining success and whether we're doing an exercise where we assume perfect foresight or evaluating real-time performance under uncertainty. Also if we're comparing to median, mean or modal outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I nominate you to write the "pandemic could have gone so much worse" hot take. Vaccines came fast & were effective; we avoided worst economic outcomes; lockdowns may have been overused but people were quite willing to make adaptations; world lucky Omicron was a bit less virulent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other thing about "culture wars" is that while IMO Democrats do have many vulnerabilities, so do Republicans. Republican lawmakers in states like Texas are considerably more right-wing than e.g. Youngkin in Virginia and may repel moderate voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Way too much 13-dimensional chess here! I think Democrats would rather have $2.50 gas and a fight over "culture wars" than $5.00 gas and...what will probably wind up being a fight over culture wars anyway because everyone loves talking about culture wars. https://t.co/kS2NDidnFa https://t.co/9KJIk2Lv33 — PolitiTweet.org