Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan Doesn't that actually bolster the claim (advanced by e.g. @mattyglesias) that most of the people who get labeled as contrarian are *not* in fact reflexively contrarian? They tend to disagree with other liberals on a few high-profile issues but not all by any means. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “Marine Le Pen has a real chance to become the next president of France…She trails Emmanuel Macron by an average of around… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some tangible indications of the return to "normal" pre-pandemic social behavior in the US: Restaurant reservations = 100% of pre-pandemic levels MLB attendance = 100% of pre-pandemic levels Air travel = 90% of pre-pandemic levels https://t.co/tWwVpfjHYp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Don't feel like getting in *too* much of a fight so I'm not going to single out individuals. But we're getting to the point where there's a lot of horseshoe-theory overlap between anti-vaxxers and zero-covid zealots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ChangePolls That's not what nonpartisan polling shows and I would be exceptionally concerned with my methods if those were the results I was obtaining. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @KSoltisAnderson: @NateSilver538 There are also a lot of people with no opinion either way. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This whole article is strange, not least because normie Dems mostly feel warmly toward Musk whereas it's the political class that increasingly regards him as an antihero. https://t.co/mGz1ioHqhB https://t.co/dTP3Jg8EbP — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd be more sympathetic to calls for greater content moderation if people calling for it acknowledged that moderation decisions are likely to be implemented in a politically biased way. But I think most people asking for it see that as an advantage rather than a drawback. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

More broadly, the literature generally suggests - yes, it's complicated - that voters pick sides first and *then* formulate (partisan-motivated) beliefs, more than the other way around. So the appetite for misinformation is to some important degree downstream from partisanship. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why? Well, partly because the people inclined to believe crazy shit probably won't vote D anyway. Partly because swing voters get turned off by it. And, partisanship is a strong motivator and Democratic voters have some incorrect beliefs as well. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course people believe some crazy shit! And yet, Democrats won big in 2018 and narrowly in 2020. And they won the popular vote in 2016 and the close result was right in line with what economic models predicted. So, the *electoral* impact of misinformation is pretty ambiguous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah, the current equilibrium is: most things that indeed are disinformation get flagged as disinformation, but so are a bunch of things that aren't disinformation, trust in media keeps going down, which probably doesn't cost Ds elections but has other serious adverse effects. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The theory that "misinformation" has changed electoral outcomes in the US is pretty badly underbaked, especially given that the last several elections have broadly been in line with what you might expect given underlying economic conditions, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias This is kind of like when I did high school policy debate where your goal was to prove that every random incremental policy change resulted in nuclear war (or better yet, **multiple** nuclear wars). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@normative I can halfway see a scenario where someone (NYT?) tries to develop a kinder, gentler, newsier, more moderated Twitter, and it doesn't really take off with consumers but does take some mindshare away from Old Twitter and we wind up in a stalemate with no one dominant player. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

UMich consumer confidence only surveys 500 people a month, you're going to get some big random swings that way. https://t.co/RMODA45OG0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pillars of democracy: * Free and fair elections * Separation of powers * Equal rights for all US citizens * Content moderation on Twitter — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Miami, and maybe other urban areas in Florida, will be a good test of this, I think. Some people select them precisely because they have urban amenities but are more purple/conservative. Probably will not get bluer in the short run but the medium term is interesting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* When you bet in poker, you're truthfully (!) telling your opponents that you have a mix of strong hands and weak hands (bluffs). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh, bluffing in poker isn't really lying*, whereas there is a lot of actual lying in politics. (Also, Iowa and New Hampshire need to quit being so precious.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss There were about 6 seconds between when liberals realized that they were permitted to criticize the mainstream media and when they started to constantly argue that the media was biased *against* them. It was a pretty good 6 seconds. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @xkcd: Using GPT-3 to gain new insight into historical figures https://t.co/4GXpqgVbqZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be fair, I do think the media has a general bias toward negative news, i.e. "if it bleeds it leads". But this is something politicians have had to contend with since the dawn of journalism. The idea that the media has been particularly out of line on inflation is off-base. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, if you Google "unemployment 50-year low", you'll found lots of mainstream media headlines touting this. https://t.co/ajwbNoDa2j — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Student loan debt peaks at around age 35 so I'm not really sure this follows. And very few voters of any age rank student debt as a top priority. https://t.co/J4ryqXspfG https://t.co/zGDPeOtRIY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I didn't extensively follow media coverage of the race, but one wonders how coverage might have been different (and perhaps voter behavior too?) if Mélenchon had been 2nd some polls, which he probably should have been given how tight it actually was between him and Le Pen. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How'd the French polls do? Not terribly: they got the order of Macron and Le Pen correct in 1st and 2nd. But some pretty bad misses on other candidates. Pretty much everyone had Mélenchon between 16-18% and he finished with 22% instead, nearly reaching the runoff. https://t.co/AvH103B4ro — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @NateDuncanNBA Yeah, although one downside is that you might tank to avoid finishing in 4th since then you'll get the toughest of the 5-8 seeds. Maybe you could do something more limited like: the 1 seed has the right to swap 1st round opponents with the 4 seed, and the 2 seed can with the 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NateDuncanNBA Yeah not great when the last few days of the season feel like solving a Sudoku puzzle where you can ~deterministically figure out who will win. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Tweet I was responding to got revised (@Taniel is an excellent follow BTW) but this is still a very tight range of results that likely reflects herding. https://t.co/TXHDMCzG7A — PolitiTweet.org