Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked May 20, 2022

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Mon Apr 11 17:21:26 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How'd the French polls do? Not terribly: they got the order of Macron and Le Pen correct in 1st and 2nd. But some pretty bad misses on other candidates. Pretty much everyone had Mélenchon between 16-18% and he finished with 22% instead, nearly reaching the runoff. https://t.co/AvH103B4ro — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 11, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @NateDuncanNBA Yeah, although one downside is that you might tank to avoid finishing in 4th since then you'll get the toughest of the 5-8 seeds. Maybe you could do something more limited like: the 1 seed has the right to swap 1st round opponents with the 4 seed, and the 2 seed can with the 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 11, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I didn't extensively follow media coverage of the race, but one wonders how coverage might have been different (and perhaps voter behavior too?) if Mélenchon had been 2nd some polls, which he probably should have been given how tight it actually was between him and Le Pen. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 11, 2022