Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

According to The Needle, Buttigieg is up to 86% to win on SDEs. Sanders is 94% to win the first alignment and 60% to win the final alignment. https://t.co/l64PetfzP0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Final alignment with new Iowa data Sanders 26.1 (-0.1) Buttigieg 25.3 (+0.1) Warren 20.3 (-0.4) Biden 13.5 (+0.3) Klobuchar 12.3 (-0.2) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

State delegate equivalents with new Iowa data Buttigieg 26.9 (+0.1) Sanders 25.2 (-) Warren 18.2 (-0.2) Biden 15.6 (+0.2) Klobuchar 12.5 (-0.1) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're processing this small batch of data but it looks like it doesn't change much and may have been slightly better for Buttigieg than Sanders. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I suppose we could just plug the Upshot needle into our model but slightly afraid of potential disruptions in the space-time continuum if we try that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I personally think it should be much closer to even and that "split winners" is the right interpretation but as an empirical matter, it's mostly being covered as a Buttigieg win (if current results hold). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I did a quick survey of major media outlets (ones that are DNC debate sponsors) and although it varies from outlet to outlet, on average about ~80% of the emphasis in articles on Iowa results is on state delegate equivalents, versus ~20% on the popular vote measures. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKarol @ylelkes Yeah I don't buy that either candidates were especially clustered this year, nor that this has anything much to do with turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FYI, we'll be updating our NBA projections as trades come through. Here's the Rockets' new depth chart with Covington and them doing some very ... creative things to fill minutes at the center position. https://t.co/YUqoL0VLba https://t.co/1ZIBy1NTrS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I can't say that we really took "30% of Iowa caucus results still unavailable 40 hours after the caucuses ended" in… https://t.co/7AmJYBtY26 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* Bennet, Gabbard and Patrick had already lowered expectations to the point where they weren't "competing" in Iowa.… https://t.co/P5QBD0hEVW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A bit unusual, in a field this large, to not have any candidates drop out immediately after Iowa, although it's eas… https://t.co/DB4e5lcVhN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do wonder whether if Biden is just a little stronger in Iowa, whether he's viable in more precincts and Buttigieg… https://t.co/lRbVgviOZJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sanders is the closest thing to being a good bet, and could very well be a good bet after winning NH, but there's a lot of ambiguity around whether Iowa will be treated as a "win" or a "loss" for him and the first smattering of post-Iowa polls we have for him aren't great. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're at one of those points when nobody seems like a particularly good bet to win the Democratic nomination and yet someone has to. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @xenocryptsite: Assuming the same results would still have happened, and that the final Iowa results are as predicted, Selzer poll and c… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @xenocryptsite: And they should be thanking god or Mao or whoever that a Pete supporter got the Selzer poll spiked... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not to say that Buttigieg and Klob were something that "just happened" to Biden. Their rise came in part because of the weakness of Biden and the other frontrunners. But they also have a fairly Iowa-specific appeal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

*For the time being* it seems possible that Iowa plays a fairly large role in this story and the rise/presence of Buttigieg and Klobuchar in Iowa hurt Biden a lot among moderates. (They also hurt Warren among college-educated voters.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The irony here is that people often get upset when the media hedges/downplays expectations for their guy (Sanders fans no different than anyone else in this regard). But there are sometimes times when lower expectations are helpful, especially in the early-stage primaries. 5/5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bernie's actual performance—which will probably still involve him winning the most votes!—was right in line with smart, empirically-driven expectations. It disappointed only relative to stylized, exaggerated expectations that ignored uncertainty/ambiguity in the data. 4/5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the vote counting method that Sanders is most likely to lose, state delegate equivalents, is not something that the polls try to predict. But it was *apparent ahead of time* that this might hurt him. Same goes with realigment/second preferences, which also hurt him. 3/x — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reality was that Iowa was a 4- or perhaps even 5-way jumble, with Sanders narrowly at the top but Biden and Buttigieg ahead in some polls. He was the *most likely* winner but a slight underdog relative to the field. 2/x https://t.co/Q2hBgpjs39 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm seeing stories characterize Bernie's performance in IA as having been disappointing, which I think is the wrong characterization, but goes to show you how "expectations" matter and how media narratives are sometimes out of line with reality. 1/x https://t.co/JUr1KiVXKf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

New Hampshire is the one state where there might literally be too much polling. https://t.co/TfIn9Kyjol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SopanDeb It's only a caucus if you don't report the trades until 3 days after the deadline. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @maggiekb1: Happy to report that @KaleighRogers was such a perfectly timed addition to our team that I'd almost be tempted to craft a co… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BDavidSilver The problem for Buttigieg is that it's easy to imagine him getting quite a large bounce in NH, which… https://t.co/7JfTtM330G — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We are already seeing a little bit of a Buttigieg + Bernie bump in a couple of new NH polls out just now. https://t.co/nRWOEjafiW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while there are some things we *do* know—clearly Iowa was not *good* news for Joe Biden—I'd mostly encourage y'a… https://t.co/qqwLOJVOUA — PolitiTweet.org