Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked June 18, 2020

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Wed Feb 05 14:46:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, the vote counting method that Sanders is most likely to lose, state delegate equivalents, is not something that the polls try to predict. But it was *apparent ahead of time* that this might hurt him. Same goes with realigment/second preferences, which also hurt him. 3/x — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reality was that Iowa was a 4- or perhaps even 5-way jumble, with Sanders narrowly at the top but Biden and Buttigieg ahead in some polls. He was the *most likely* winner but a slight underdog relative to the field. 2/x https://t.co/Q2hBgpjs39 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bernie's actual performance—which will probably still involve him winning the most votes!—was right in line with smart, empirically-driven expectations. It disappointed only relative to stylized, exaggerated expectations that ignored uncertainty/ambiguity in the data. 4/5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 5, 2020 Hibernated